2012 NBA Playoffs: Instinct

In recent years, it seems, the NBA Playoffs set out with a very small selection of definite favorites to make it to the championship series. The last three seasons, LeBron always seemed to be on his way to to the Finals. The Garnett Celtics' first regular season set up for championship expectations. And perhaps more than any of them, both eras of Phil Jackson in Los Angeles had a certain air of inevitability.

Things don't always go as planned. LeBron never made it to the Finals in the last two years with the Cavs, both Phil Jackson eras ended weirdly and harshly, and the Celtics' road the the Title in 2008 was in serious jeopardy early on in the playoffs. Even last year, once the Heat made it to the Finals against the surprising Dallas Mavericks, we thought we had an idea of what was going to happen. Of course, it didn't.

The perception of the NBA as a "star-driven league" combined with the seven-game series seems to make the fans feel comfortable in "knowing" that the "best team" is going to win. Though we are often surprised by the results, the playoffs seem to be mapped out, for the most part, in our heads before they start.

This season? Nuh-uh.

Every team has major problems. The best teams are too young or too old or too top-heavy or too star-lacking. There is one thing we DO know. We know that Buddies is gonna stay up late the night after the vomit-inducing draft night drinking game to bring you (mainly Maggie) an NBA Playoff preview. This is essentially a guide for who to watch and what to watch for with four levels of teams: No Point, Wildest Dreams Teams, Fake Contenders and Contenders. I have put these teams in order from least likely to most likely to win the title (in my opinion, obviously).

The "No Point" Teams: I'd Rather Be Tanking.

The Philadelphia 76ers: 8-seed, Eastern Conference

Let's face it, most of these teams are basically in Hell. Their common ground is that they have no star but aren't bad enough to not make the playoffs. It's really a noble thing that these teams are doing, sadly. It's the old "be the best you can be no matter what thing" gone crazy. YOU HAVE TO GET BAD. Kind of like the economy.

Anyway, there's not much to say about the Sixers. That's why they're in this group. They play hard for Doug Collins and they play really good team basketball but they can't win any close games EVER because they don't have a star to go to and get bad foul calls at the end of the game. That's perhaps an oversimplification, but the fact remains. To be in this group, you can't win the Title even in my wildest dreams...and I mean the absolute wildest.

The Utah Jazz: 8-seed, Western Conference

Again, no stars and no reason to watch them. I'm almost 100% sure that they will win at least two games in this series just because of how much I have been talking about how much I'd rather watch any other team in the league than them in round 1. Of course they're not bad, but they're not good either. I didn't even like watching them when they had Deron Williams and they thought they were good. I just fell asleep.

The Orlando Magic: 6-seed, Eastern Conference

They did have a star, but he quit.

The Atlanta Hawks: 5-seed, Eastern Conference

They paid a guy as if he were a star, but he's Joe Johnson.

The Denver Nuggets: 6-seed, Western Conference

I don't feel great about putting them here because of how much I approve of how good they are after trading Carmelo Anthony (better than the Knicks)...but you don't see the Knicks on this first list, do you?

The Nuggets don't really have anyone approaching a star and they also don't really play anything approaching defense, and that's really what got them here. There's a certain team missing from this list that might be conspicuous (no stars), but the defense is the difference. It really is appropriate that the Lakers get to play a team on this first list even though they didn't get a top-2 seed.

Maybe in my Wildest Dreams...

The Indiana Pacers: 3-seed, Eastern Conference

The Indiana Pacers are deep and tough but they really don't belong above the first list. I can't even really put my finger on why they aren't but when I say "wildest," I want to give the benefit of the doubt to everyone.

This team is basically designed to be annoying to play. They have the giant center who can guard your dominant center (if that's your thing). They have the quick little point guard (if you're trying to hide yours defensively). They have big young wings to guard against your running style (if you're into it). But, again...not one Goddamn star!!! This brings me to a point that should probably have been brought up with the Nuggets...

Depth matters less now. With the season being so brutal, the Pacers had the advantage of being young and deep. Now, the top of your rotation matters more than the overall quality of your roster. Also, your youth matters less because there will be more rest in the playoffs and the freshness of legs should be equalized to an extent.

That said, they made it here because of how they can match up and because they are the BEST of the teams in this young/deep/balanced category. If everyone on every other team gets hurt, the Pacers might be a dark horse to win it all!

The New York Knicks: 7-seed, Eastern Conference

Should the Knicks be proud that they are a 7-seed in the not-as-deep Eastern Conference and made it to the second list? Or should they be embarrassed that they the least likely team to win it all (by my estimation) that has a bona fide super star?

Who cares. Fuck the Knicks.

But seriously, the Knicks are incomplete (and kind of annoying). Carmelo Anthony is perhaps the most frightening guy with the ball at the end of the game in the league, but what's behind it might be a double-edged sword.

Carmelo is definitely down for the one-on-one, competitive, "who's-the-most-man" challenge. You know, like that thing that everyone says Kobe is great at? Well Carmelo's actually good at it. 'Melo has a noticeable instinct for whatever this is. It's like he can smell it. If you throw down the one-on-one gauntlet in front of Carmelo Anthony, he will show you how bad you are at scoring.

On the flip side, Carmelo doesn't seem to have any idea what it means to be a leader of, or how to sacrifice for, a team. And it's not that he doesn't seem to want to do it now, but your instincts show up when your pushed to your limits, not what you're just now trying to learn how to do. What I'm talking about here is essentially being consistent. When you're the most talented player on the team, you generally want to be an undisputed leader in one way or another. He just can't do it. He's never done it. It's kind of a shame. 'Melo's not quite in the club of modern stars that dance with their rivals during the All Star Game, but he has his own problems. In fact, he probably wishes he were in that club but he has too much of an edge.

My verdict is that their star is on par, scoring-wise, with anyone in the league but just not nearly consistent enough to make me think his team can win more than one game against the Heat...but they could...I guess.

The Dallas Mavericks: 7-seed, Western Conference

The Mavericks are getting respect for having won the title last season, but did they really seem like some kind of dynasty last year? They've done their job.

The Los Angeles Clippers: 5-seed, Western Conference

Similar to the Knicks, the Clippers are an incomplete team that throws one of the best players in the league out there that gives them a chance on any given night. The difference is that the Clippers are a little bit more top-heavy (Blake Griffin is a much better offensive second banana than Amar'e Stoudemire at this point) and their star (Chris Paul) is very consistent and a fantastic leader.

After Paul, the Clips rely on Mo Williams, Nick Young, Eric Bledsoe and Randy Foye to hold down the fort at the PG/SG positions. They also count Caron Butler as a "weapon." Blechkkk.

But again...on any given night, Chris Paul can win the day. That strategy, however, doesn't typically win four straight seven-game series' against the best teams in the league. They'll be lucky to get out of the first round against...

The Memphis Grizzlies: 4-seed, Western Conference

Who's their star, you ask? Why, Gilbert Arenas, of course!

With Zach Randolph, Rudy Gay and Marc Gasol in your starting lineup, you could argue that all of those guys are stars (although, you'd probably be wrong). Randolph is your "star" here, if you want to pick one, but the rest of these guys really pick each other up with their strengths and weaknesses.

Randolph and Gasol are big and strong and hard to intimidate in the paint (Gasol because he has already gotten over the I-can't-beat-my-big-brother hurdle and Randolph because he's probably insane), they have perimeter scoring (Gay and Mayo), they have the quick point guard (Conley) and they have Tony Allen to scare the shit out of your best guard. They don't seem to have very much wasted space on their roster, which is appealing to watch. The Griz are absolutely the most likely team out of this group to go to ruin everyone in these subsequent lists' summer (and I'm rooting for it).

The Fictional Contenders: Contending for what, exactly?

The Los Angeles Lakers: 3-seed, Western Conference

Mike Brown and Kobe Bryant might be the stupidest couple in the history of things being paired together.

You could think of more combustible duos, like Bill Belichick and Bernie Kosar for example. The difference is that those two guys are aggressive and Belichick just traded Bernie because he wouldn't run his robotic offense so it ended. Kobe is so passive-aggressive and Mike Brown is just passive so it won't end. Mike Brown isn't assertive enough to take control and Kobe isn't masculine enough to just demand a better coach. I just want to get everything straight that this is not some odd couple that might just work. It's a TERRIBLE match. Kobe Bryant, 33, led the league in shot attempts and was leading the leage in minutes played before injuring his shin. How dumb are both of those things?!?! Really dumb.

To be clear, the Lakers are a threat because Bynum and Gasol are a fantastic front line. That is their mismatch. Kobe Bryant is almost as great a player as he is a megalomaniacal douche bag (high praise), but he's not why they're good. This team, however, does not have good chemistry, a good coach, or good Karma (which usually doesn't mater).

This seems like a good time to mention Ron Artest.

He should be suspended, at least, for the entire 2012 Playoffs. Nobody does what he did. His elbow was not something that even seemed to have any ill will towards it, I don't think. This might make it more forgivable (or something), but it makes it clear how dangerous of a thing this guy with "World Peace" on the back of his jersey is. I like Artest as a player, but it's just not OK for a professional league to have a guy where playing hard against him causes your employees legitimate concern for their safety. MWP basically said that it was "bad timing" because he was so excited about a dunk and Harden happened to be in the way...so he almost murdered him.

If it were someone else (which you can't even really say because nobody else would have ever done this) it might be different, but this guy apparently doesn't learn things. A seven game suspension for a rout of the Nuggets is no penalty at all. Also, he's coming back for a very likely second round match up with the Thunder! I bet no altercations will occur...

What he deserves, if not to be kicked out of the league permanently, is to have a full team beat-down for that unbelievable cheap shot the first game he comes back but that would only hurt the Thunder. How unfair. What the hell is the point of the commissioner anyway?

And by the way, two things that would have never happened if Phil Jackson were still in L.A.:

1. Luke Walton traded to the Cavaliers.

2. Derek Fisher traded to the Thunder.

Phil kept those guys around for a reason (that only he knows, I'm sure).

The Boston Celtics: 3-seed, Eastern Conference

The high character reflection in the L.A. Lakers' mirror.

I hate to leave these here but I don't think they can keep up with the Bulls, who they will face in the second round. I've grown to appreciate these guys but I don't really believe in that late-season surge. Too far, too old.

The Contenders

The San Antonio Spurs: 1-seed, Western Conference

Now we're cookin'!

The Spurs know how to win it all. Popovich, Duncan, Parker and Ginobili are one entity and that's an advantage just as valuable as any physical advantage another team might have. Also, they've been accumulating quite the stable of role players with Neal, Bonner, Green (3-pointers), Splitter, Blair (Rebounds), and Leonard (young guy stuff). The Spurs are a real team with a real chance.

The reason they're fourth? Their coach is too good.

What I mean by this, is that I believe that Popovich has managed this weird season perfectly, meaning their win total might be inflated by that management. The last two years, the Spurs underperformed in the playoffs and while I believe this is the best of those three teams and that this is the most wide open of the playoff landscapes, I still don't have them as the favorite. Just one amongst many.

The Oklahoma City Thunder: 2-seed, Western Conference

The Spurs managed the race better than any team by far, but that doesn't mean they had the best car. The Thunder were the best team in the West pretty much all year until they bungled it away at the end. Their strengths include one of the best scoring prodigies in the league's history, a top-tier athlete as their point guard, good defensive big men, a gifted play-maker off the bench, and Derek Fisher!!!

The Thunder are not short on star power, depth, youth, or even experience, really.

Their tangible problem is that their big men don't score. All of their offense starts from the perimeter and even their star forward, Kevin Durant, is known for his range. But I'm more worried about getting back to instincts.

Russell Westbrook's instinct is not to be a point guard. He tries and tries but he can't hide it. He's a natural freak athlete that wants to DUNK and just happens to have the scorer in the league on his team. That matters when the chips are down.

They also share a sort of vibe with this next team on the list so let's just talk about them together...

The Miami Heat: 2-seed, Eastern Conference

LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden. These guys are nice guys. Good guys. So why do they bother me so much?

Because I watch the NBA to see a competitive and physical art form, basically. The true reality TV. I want the best players of a game to be pushed to their physical and emotional limits and to learn what happens and be able to tell people about it and talk about it. I want different characters to relate to and to dislike and situations that are analogous to real life.

These guys know they're good and they know they're nice and they want things given to them because of it. That is why the Spurs and the Celtics can even compete with either of these teams. Boston and San Antonio know that you have to be cold sometimes if you want something. That's what competition is. How much are you willing to put aside to win?

The Heat and the Thunder know these things consciously. But again, we're talking about instinct. Both of these teams, and to be clear these are the two most talented teams in the league, have the instinct to pout when things don't go their way and are very uncomfortable when people root against them. It's not fair. The most talented and the nice guys don't win?

The Heat are the better example of this, of course. The Thunder are young enough to still be fairly humble, but they still seem to separate rather than come together when the pressure is on.

With all that said, the Heat are incredible front runners. Frightening. If they can keep public opinion on their side (yes, that matters), they will most likely win it all. If they don't, it opens the door for...

The Chicago Bulls: 1-seed, Eastern Conference

This is a sucker's pick. When LeBron guards Derrick Rose, the Bulls can't really score. Just as the "rational" fan warns the casual fan to beware falling in love with talent, playing the "right way" is often a refuge for the insecure.

I believe, however, that Rose, Deng, Noah and Gibson are championship players and have no desire to hide. They just don't have that instinct.

Aim Low

"We're in it to win it!"

"Anything short of a title this year will be considered a failure."

"CHAMPIONSHIP OR BUST!!!"

Don't these phrases sound great? Isn't this what you want your team to be thinking at the start of the season? Well, I have an answer for you: Fucking no.

The Cleveland Indians have been stating all Winter long that they plan on making the playoffs and being a contender, which was the first clue to me that they weren't going to do that or be that.

In case you missed it, the Indians started off the season by embarrassing themselves with two straight extra inning losses at home to the Toronto Blue Jays who are certainly no Goliath. Really, it was a gift of an opener. An 80-82 team gets to open at home against a mediocre team with no true ace? I'll take it! Additionally, Cleveland got two gifts in this game:

First,the fans witnessed a fantastic start from their young and newly minted "ace," Justin Masterson. To clarify, a great performance out of a starting pitcher is a gift and not some sign of quality play. It's a combination of luck, talent, the a mental state of the pitcher. It's not a good thing to waste.

Second, fan favorite (and Buddies Favorite), "Jungle" Jack Hannahan, hit a 3-run home run with 2 outs. This is a gift because Hannahan is the Indians' 9-hole hitter and is known as a defensive specialist.

Sadly, their closer, Chris Perez (who may or may not have been ready to pitch after an injury during Spring Training; potentially another massive failure by the decision makers in the organization), unravelled in the 9th inning and blew the lead and the save. The Indians did not score a run after the 2nd inning in a game that eventually went 16 INNINGS. Their runs were produced by a groundout by their defensive specialist 1st baseman and a home run by their defensive specialist 3rd baseman. None of their "good" hitters did anything of note in 16 INNINGS. They had two chances to drive in a runner from third with less than two outs to win the game in a walk-off and failed both times.

The two gifts they received on opening day should have proved enough for them to limp into an opening day victory, even on a day in which they generally played poorly. But really, that's the real tragedy here: "Opening Day." The citizens of Cleveland paid money to go to the Cleveland Indians' home opener and their team didn't even have the decency to win.

Just today, the Indians blew another late lead, had poor at-bats with bad results, and never really sniffed anything you might call a "rally." All this while wasting yet another high-quality start by a starting pitcher.

Now that we're caught up, let's get back to the goal of making the playoffs.

This is what can happen when you publicly aim higher than what your team is capable of delivering. Players can overshoot their talents. They'll look at the standings, the scoreboard, the roster, or the stat sheet and say, "Oh no...I need to hit more home runs." That leads to swinging harder than what your swing has always been and instead your own play just coming up short, you lose who you are as a player altogether, and that's no way to play a game this difficult.

The other option? The Indians play no different than they would have played without the "expectations," and the only disappointed people are the fans (also worse than a goal-less scenario).

Two guys set hurdles for themselves to jump over. One sets a high one and one sets a low one. The first guy falls and the second guy makes it over. Now, just because the first guy failed doesn't mean he can't jump higher than the second guy but the fact remains, the first guy is on his face and the second guy is on his feet.

Now I'm not advocating giving up before you start, but you do have to know who you are. The Indians would be better off viewing themselves as a .500 team and an underdog, playing the best they can, and hoping for some luck rather than trying to convince themselves that they are a playoff team by rights.

So far, I see a team that has lied to itself all off season and needed a good start for some cheap affirmation for what they were trying to convince themselves of. The Indians had a lot of breaks to do just that and have squandered every one and I don't believe that they have the talent to dig themselves out of what I see the fallout of these first two games being.

I know it's early, but I'm already aiming low.