Saturday, March 28, 2009

Signs of Life

Out of eight total games and out of six games I could have possibly won in the past two days, I won all six. I don't want to jinx myself but I'm definitely going to win this thing.

On a side note, watching Duke and Memphis lose at the same time was the most satisfying part of this tournament and will make it memorable even if I don't complete my monumental comeback.

Midwest

1 Louisville over 6 West Virginia (2 Michigan State)

This is the round I finally stop hemorrhaging points due to that West Virginia pick. Louisville looked pretty good last night and is playing against a team I picked to lose in the second round. That's pretty much all I can ask for.

West

3 Missouri over 1 Connecticut

Uconn looks as good as anybody in this tournament so this one worries me enough. I'm banking on Mizzou getting Thabeet in foul trouble and hopefully scoring enough points in the paint while Thabeet is still on the other side of the floor. If Mizzou wins this game, it's going to be really hard to root for them against Louisville considering how much they've done for me.

East

1 Pittsburgh over 3 Villanova

I don't know what Pitt is doing in this tourney, but I still like them. Playing Pitt just seems like it wouldn't be fun at all. Everyone on that team is a fat guy. I feel oddly comfortable about this one.

You know what? Watch out for the Pitt blow out. Gut feeling.

South

2 Oklahoma over 1 North Carolina

If this follows Buddies' Design, it will be the final embarrassment for Tyler Hansbrough. I don't hate Psycho-T, for the record. I appreciate the way he hustles. I do however, hate the way he plays and think he will be an utterly useless pro. UNC might win this game, but if anyone is pretending the match up between Hansbrough and Blake Griffin is anything close to a wash is confused.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

The Shit Sixteen

Sorry for the language folks, I didn't expect to be dead last by the time the sweet sixteen began. I probably should have however, it's usually feast or famine with me in these things. We're lucky though, because if I win everything from here on out, I can still win (I think)!! And, as all my readers know, it will happen.

Midwest

1 Louisville over 6 West Virginia (12 Arizona)

Let's hope the overall 1 seed can beat a 12 seed. Not to spoil anything, but I sort of need this to happen more than most (wink).

6 West Virginia (3 Kansas) over 10 USC (2 Michigan State)


In reality, I like Michigan State here. Izzo usually wins the games he should and I still think Kansas isn't a strong 3-seed. This was supposed to be a super athletic chaotic match up but it happens to be the opposite.

West

4 Washington (5 Purdue) over 1 Connecticut

That Washington game still burns. I like UConn in reality. Unfortunately, I don't seem to be very much in tune with reality thus far.

3 Missouri over 2 Memphis


Two super athletic running teams. I really hope Mizzou can win this one. I don't know why, but it seems like Memphis is a bad Karma team.

East

1 Pittsburgh over 5 Florida State (4 Xavier)


The scores of Pitt's games have been underwhelming but I just like their style. It looks like it hurts to play them and they don't get rattled. Like 'em.

3 Villanova over 2 Duke

I strangely like Villanova on account of a coaching match up. I think God might strike me down for insulting Coach K. I know I'm losing this game.

South

1 North Carolina over 12 Western Kentucky (4 Gonzaga)
These parentheses are really starting to hurt. Western Kentucky...I don't even know what to say. I don't even want to watch this game.

2 Oklahoma over 6 Arizona State (3 Syracuse)

This is the game that I'm REALLY worried about. I'm pretty worried Syracuse might win it all. If I'm eliminated before the final four, I'm rooting for Johnny Flynn and the Orange.

Enjoy probably the best weekend of the tourney.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Thirsty Thirty-Two?

Round 1 went really well for me until the last four games, all of which turned sour in the last few minutes. Just gotta keep it together.

I'm continuing on with my second round picks. Again, I'm giving you the picks on my bracket. If there is a different team than who I picked, they will be in parentheses.

Midwest

1 Louisville over 8 Ohio State (9 Siena)

This OSU miss hurt a lot. Siena played horribly and were able to stay in the game because apparently Ohio State has never practiced breaking a press...or really doing anything. I like Thad Matta, but I'm starting to think that he is a terrible coach.

Louisville will kill Siena. No Cinderella here.

4 Wake Forest (13 Cleveland State) over 12 Arizona

I obviously can't defend this pick because it's impossible. It's rough when you pick a good team and that team declines to try. Thanks Wake. I think I'll take 'Zona here, probably because I didn't get to watch Cleveland State play and I did see a little of Arizona. Both teams beat their opponents like the seeds were reversed (wire to wire wins). Weird.

6 West Virginia (11 Dayton) over 3 Kansas

Son of a bitch! I really thought West Virginia was better than a six seed. I still do! Show up for once! Kansas has overachieved and is over seeded but they will beat Dayton.

10 USC over 2 Michigan State

Look at that...no parentheses! If they play smart, which I'm sure they won't, it seems like USC can out jump Michigan State to a victory. I wish I felt better about this pick.

West

1 Connecticut over 9 Texas A and M

A and M played pretty well for me, I won a dollar off of my waiter at BW3. Hopefully they don't play so well this round.

4 Washington over 5 Purdue

People seem to be getting on the Purdue train, but they really are not that great when they aren't getting phantom out of bounds calls going their way. I liked what I saw out of Washington (the score).

3 Missouri over 6 Marquette


This is the kind of game you like to see. Marquette squeaked by Utah State and didn't look good at all and Missouri crushed Cornell. This is really the first game I've felt good about so far.

2 Memphis over 7 California (10 Maryland)

I could see Maryland winning this game easily. Memphis isn't even as good as they were two years ago. They were good with Derrick Rose and otherwise are not. That's it.

East

1 Pittsburgh over 8 Oklahoma State

Somebody told me that DeJuan Blair jokingly said after the game that they almost lost on purpose so that the starters could stay in. I like your attitude, Pitt.

5 Florida State (12 Wisconsin) over 13 Portland State (4 Xavier)

...I'm taking Xavier.

3 Villanova over 11 VCU (6 UCLA)

My original bracket had VCU going to the elite 8 and I decided that I might as well just blow my nose on my bracket and hand it in. Good thing I didn't do that.

2 Duke over 10 Minnesota (7 Texas)

The Big 12 has overachieved so far. Duke is still bad. Watch out for this one.

South

1 North Carolina over 8 LSU


Rooting for LSU was painful. They played much worse basketball than Butler but won because of the athleticism gap. That gap doesn't exist against UNC. BLOWOUT.

12 Western Kentucky over 13 Akron (4 Gonzaga)

I don't feel wonderful about this. I still don't think Gonzaga is good, but it's not like Western Kentucky is. I'm sticking by it.

6 Arizona State over 3 Syracuse


I love James Harden.

2 Oklahoma over 10 Michigan

Not only does Michigan not have a "reliable post game," they don't have a single post player. Have fun, Blake.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Playoff Scenarios

Right now, we're kind of the in the conference tournament section of the NBA season. The good teams can put in a good performance to cement a 1-seed and some Cinderellas can make a run at the dance.

By the way, I think Jon Barry did something comparing the NBA season to the NCAA Tournament and I am sufficiently ashamed of doing the same thing...if you were wondering.

So, here are some issues that are up in the air as of now that could change the NBA playoff picture.

The Top Three Seeds in the East

As much as Orlando has been counted out of the top two seeds conversation, depending on KG's knee, Rondo's ankle, Leon Powe's whatever he hurt tonight, Marbury's brain etc., the Boston Celtics could certainly be staring at a 3-seed in the Eastern Conference. While the difference between Boston or Orlando getting the 1-seed or 2-seed is huge, I'm not sure the difference between those two flip-flopping the 2 and 3 seeds matters a great deal.

Whether or not game 7 (if there is one) is in Boston or Orlando, I'm confident the Celtics will win that series. It's really not that I think Boston is better than Orlando, in fact, I would rather have the Cavs play Boston in the ECF than Orlando. The Magic are a very good team but, especially without Jameer, they can be punked (for lack of a real word). They might have the most physically imposing big man in the game, but Orlando is not intimidating on the inside, and the reverse is true with Boston. Still, it would be quite a shock to preseason pundits if the ECF ended up being anyone but Cavs vs. Celtics.

The Four and Five Seeds in the East

This scenario is another crowd-pleaser of a scenario because it doesn't really matter in the long run because both teams will get hammered by Cleveland. Both these teams are wildly entertaining, great at home, and much much worse on the road. If the Hawks end up with home court, they probably win. If the Heat end up with home court, I might bet my landlord's house they win.

Wade is tough all the time. He is really tough at home. He's really REALLY tough at home in the playoffs. The importance of great players is inflated in the playoffs. It's really that simple. This is my sleeper (if it is a sleeper) for one of the most fun first round playoff series.

Magic vs. Pistons

The Pistons are not a good team, and not the same team that beat the Magic last season in the playoffs. That said, Orlando seems to have a problem with Detroit. There is a decent chance that could be a first round match up...keep an eye on it.

The Lakers' Road to the Finals

The Western Conference playoff picture is so goofy looking, there are way too many scenarios the even run through, but the only way they really impact anything is if any of these teams can beat the Lakers.

Best Case Scenario for the Lakers:

First Round: Dallas Mavericks

The Lakers, and Kobe, own the Mavs. My brother says is L.A. plays Dallas, "Jordan's playoff scoring record will be in jeopardy." That's all that needs to be said. Sweep.

Second Round: Denver Nuggets

Another team that can't guard Kobe. If we're not clear on this, the thing about Kobe is that he runs up the score against weak defensive teams in games with high but not EXTREME pressure. This fits the bill.

Western Conference Finals: Utah Jazz

I hate the Jazz. Luckily for me, I don't think they are making it this far because they can't win on the road and they're playing a lot on the road to end the regular season. The Jazz have a WCF ceiling and it's annoying to even have them there because you know they aren't going to win. Maybe six games but it really doesn't matter.

Nightmare Scenario for L.A.:

First Round: Portland Trailblazers

Do I think the Blazers can beat L.A.? Not really. But it sure would be the most fun. Apparently, the Blazer just boo Kobe every time he touches the ball. HOW AWESOME IS THAT?? The Knicks fans can act like they are the most educated basketball fans around, but at least Portland fans know who to boo and who to chant "MVP."

For the record, standing ovation for the guy that just destroyed you? Fine. If it was a great performance, it was a great performance. But chanting "MVP?" Unforgivable.

The other reason this is a good (bad) match up is that Portland can match the Lakers' length and depth. They might be younger, but they are all good and all BIG. Also, Brandon Roy is not afraid of Kobe (if you're the Lakers' GM, you would trade Kobe for Roy straight, wouldn't you? I would.)

Second Round: Houston Rockets

This looked a lot better before Artest barked up the wrong tree against last week (when I say "barked," the pun is intended. Ron Artest is like a dog). I still think that Houston is one of the toughest and least fun teams to play in the league. Again, I don't really think they can win without McGrady at full strength (or at all), but they can annoy Kobe which is fun for everybody.

Western Conference Finals: San Antonio Spurs

If Ginobili is healthy they can win. If he's not, they can't. Overall, I'd give the Spurs about a 20% chance.



I really think this is going to be more fun than last years'. GET EXCITED.

Sunday, March 15, 2009

March Happiness

It's finals week and I couldn't be happier. The weather is getting warmer, I've never really considered finals week a real week anyway and most of all...TOURNAMENT BASKETBALL (the commercial for ESPN's Tournament Challenge says the phrase, "give into the insanity." How sweet is that??). So needless to say, Winter quarter's grades are gonna have to take a hit, because it's basketball season.

What I'm going to do is reveal one round at a time while not changing my original bracket. We'll have to use the honors system here that I'm not changing anything but I don't think too many picks should be shared before everyone makes their picks. I also think it'll be more fun this way. So, without further ado, here is my first round (the left margin area will be used for my status within my pool, by the way)!

Midwest

1 Louisville over 16 Whoever

No point in explaining. Rule of thumb: if the match up is between a number 1 seed and "whoever," go with the 1-seed.

8 Ohio State over 9 Siena

Liiiiitle nervous about this one for obvious reasons. First, I attend Ohio State University and am emotionally invested in this game. Second, Siena is the type of team I usually pick to upset somebody (cool name, probably haven't seen them play, have a history of doing well in the tourney...). OSU has Evan Turner and a bunch of hot/cold guys. I guess I haven't really written a damn thing about Ohio State this year (odd since I have season tickets) so let's put it this way: This team has three potential (POTENTIAL) pros and none of them are named "BJ."

12 Arizona over 5 Utah

First upset of the day!! Wooooo!!!! Arizona has two guys who will probably go in the first round of the NBA draft (Budinger...?). Seems like a solid upset pick to me.

4 Wake Forest over 13 Cleveland State

I like Wake when Wake is good. By the way, any statements like that which have no backing and sound a little ridiculous...those are just tournament rules I live by. Everyone has these and they don't have to make sense. I'd like to pick a team from Cleveland but it seems like a terrible idea.

6 West Virginia over 11 Dayton

Last season when Dayton played OSU in the NIT, two drunk ladies of questionable character were talkin' some stuff to some fine young Ohio State gentlemen while Dayton had the lead. The ladies made a bet for a 6-pack of whatever horrible light beer they wanted. These harlots ended up leaving when OSU took over in the second half and never honored the bet. Dayton, you're in the dog house.

Also, not to give away my future round picks...but I don't hate West Virginia.

3 Kansas over 14 North Dakota State

Not a lot to say here. I think some white dude on NDSU scored 60-something points this year in a loss. Fun fact.

10 Southern California over 7 Boston College

I hate Boston College all the time. This is not a rule, it's just a fact. I do not love the ACC.

2 Michigan State over 15 Robert Morris

I don't love MSU, but I've never met Robert Morris.

West

1 Connecticut over 16 Chattanooga

Uhhhh...

9 Texas A and M over 8 BYU

I used to like the Mormons but they haven't rewarded it as of late.

5 Purdue over 12 Northern Iowa

Where is this game being played? What, NOT in Indiana? I wish I had heard of Northern Iowa, because I would have clearly picked them over the Purdue Zebras if I could. Maybe next round??

4 Washington over 13 Mississippi State

I like writing "Wazoo" on my bracket. Not to mention...Isaiah Thomas?

6 Marquette over 11 Utah State

On top of predicting this game, I will also predict that I get this game wrong. How's that for ya?!

3 Missouri over 14 Cornell

I used to make it a rule that I pick the Ivy League winner every time no matter what just as a gut check of sorts. Well, it almost never works, plus I think Mizzou is a little scary (as you may find out in later posts).

7 California over 10 Maryland


I'm not totally sure why Maryland is in the tournament. I had to watch them a weird amount of times during the year and this Vasquez character is generally unimpressive. No thanks.

2 Memphis over 15 CS Northridge

Memphis should feel pretty comfortable in this game because they are playing a shitty team nobody has ever heard of. Just like their entire regular season!

East

1 Pittsburgh over 16 Eastern Tennessee State

Feelin' pretty good about this one.

8 Oklahoma State over 9 Tennessee

Tennessee is one of my least favorite teams. I can't bet on a coach that willingly takes a backseat to Pat Summitt, and yes, that is a sexist comment. Nice suit, by the way. Stop groping Erin Andrews.

5 Florida State over 12 Wisconsin

Wisconsin is like Utah in the NBA because they have a huge home court advantage and are weirdly white. The difference is Wisconsin isn't good at anything.

13 Portland State over 4 Xavier

What can I really say? I am picking this for absolutely no reason. A game like this happens every year and this is mine. Sorry.

11 VCU over 6 UCLA

This is the part of my bracket after the first round and see a whole lot of red. I like Eric Maynor obviously and I've had to root for UCLA the past million years and it hasn't been pretty. I'd like to try rooting against them once.

3 Villanova over 14 American


I'm an American and I think I would lose to Villanova.

10 Minnesota over 7 Texas

Texas didn't seem that great this year and I love Tubby. By the way, have some of that Kentucky. You have sucked ever since you fired this guy. Have fun having the most idiotic racist fans in America.

2 Duke over 15 Binghamton

This might be the biggest blowout of the first round. I don't know why.

South


1 North Carolina over 16 Radford

At least I'll probably get this one right.

8 LSU over 9 Butler

Butler is the type of team that would go far as an underdog but too many people know about them. Butler might just be too white for LSU, we'll see.

12 Western Kentucky over 5 Illinois

This is my actual reasoning on this pick:

I think Illinois is really good because they whooped OSU twice which I witnessed. They are a team I wanted to pick to go far but I would be surprised when they lose. Also, we played as Western Kentucky in NCAA Football '08. Do those reasons make any sense at all?? No. Isn't March Madness the best?

13 Akron over 4 Gonzaga


LeBron bump.

6 Arizona State over 11 Temple

Two guys I wanted to pick to win no matter what, James Harden and Dionte Christmas are playing each other. I really hate when that happens.

3 Syracuse over 14 S.F. Austin

I like my Johnny Flynn.

10 Michigan over 7 Clemson

Michigan seems to play well against teams that aren't Ohio State. Clemson is a dumb school.

2 Oklahoma over 15 Morgan State

Wow! What a crazy one to end on!!

Not really. I hope the Griffin Brothers don't seduce me like the Lopez twins did last year. Sometimes teams like this have the worst guards of all time and can't do a single thing against good teams. Willie Warren might be the difference for me with Oklahoma.


More to come in further rounds. I would say "good luck," but I don't wish any of you good luck.