The playoffs thus far have been a triumph for defense, and it's great to see.
Before the picks, I'll reveal to you that my original Super Bowl pick was Green Bay over Baltimore. I will now try to explain to myself why that didn't happen and try to figure out what now will happen.
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
3:00 pm, Sunday
If I were twelve years old, I would look at the fact that the Patriots won by a lot and the Ravens won by a little and extrapolate from that information that the Patriots are the more likely team to win.
Now that I'm an adult, I realize that what happened in the previous game (as well as other things that seem like indicators of future performance) are just about irrelevant. But rather than just picking the opposite of what seems to make sense and leaving it at that, I'll try to convince you that the Ravens are going to win.
The Patriots sure are a great offensive team. They aren't as explosive as the Saints or the Packers, but they are coached by the Emperor from Star Wars and have the intimidation factor of having won several Super Bowls. But I will point you to this:
Again, the Patriots have yet to win a Super Bowl when their team is based on extreme efficiency on offense. And they also have still yet to beat a good team this season.
As far as I can tell, New England played three "good" teams this season, all in a row. The Dallas Cowboys, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the New York Giants. In those games, they went 1-2, only beating Dallas, the most gifted losers in football. Not only did New England lose those games, their offensive output was, in no way, impressive (they scored 20, 17 and 20 points in those games in that order). That's alarming.
In fairness, their lowest point total all year after that was 27 and they scored 35 or more six times (seven if you count the playoffs). That's alarming for the Ravens.
But you know what? I don't care about that. To me, the Patriots are the type of team that you have to meet a certain level of competency to even play on the same field as them. Due to the downfall of the Jets and the neck surgery of Peyton Manning, their schedule was shockingly easy for a first place team. They blew team after team out of the water but when a team actually challenged them, they lost most of the time. My sneaking suspicion was that the high-flying teams would be exposed a bit in the playoffs and, so far, I've been right. New England, to me, was actually the worst of the three, they just survived because they played a cupcake 2nd round game against the clueless Broncos.
The Ravens on the other hand looked pretty crappy in a win against the Houston Texans and have all sorts of distractions dealing with their shitty quarterback wanting credit for winning (which he doesn't deserve). Here's the secret though: The Texans, other than the fact that they're playing with one hand behind their back with a rookie quarterback, they are a better team than the Patriots, or at least a far more talented team. But when you play the furious style of football that Baltimore typically plays, the talent of the individual trying to stop the onslaught might matter more than your brilliant scheme.
The Patriots are a team of mediocre talent by playoff standards. The Ravens are a simple team that thrives on a difficult task (much like a certain NFC counterpart). There are mismatches in New England's favor, but I haven't seen the Patriots beat a good team ALL YEAR. That has to mean something.
Ravens over Patriots, 27-23
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
6:30 pm, Sunday
It's difficult to even talk about this game because it just doesn't make much sense. I'm going to pick the Giants and my reasoning is that I believe they are the most complete team and I think they're going to win the Super Bowl...but they were 9-7.
The 49ers are great at stopping the run and, in the regular season, the Giants were really bad at running (however, quite good in the playoffs). You assume that San Francisco will "stop the run," but they really had better stop it completely. Like...zero yards rushing...because I think the Giants have the better quarterback and more experience. Also, the 49ers haven't really been able to run the ball themselves for quite awhile now. That's bad.
A lot of people are optimistic about the 49ers right now. For some reason, I feel that's also bad. Can anyone really picture the niners in the Super Bowl? I didn't think so.
Giants over 49ers, 24-13
Friday, January 20, 2012
Thursday, January 12, 2012
NFL Playoffs 2012: Round 2
Tebow answered my challenge.
I do my best not to overreact to things and even to draw attention to it when the world overreacts to something, but how can you not love Tebow at this point? Sure, if you're a Steelers fan you probably still hate him, but Steelers fans a. aren't human beings and b. can't read...so who cares?!
A quick thought on Tebow:
The best quarterbacks in the league: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. Only one of those players could be even considered an above-average athlete by NFL quarterback standards (Rodgers) and still, those offensive are essentially choreographed dances. When you watch a successful play by any one of those teams, you're watching, for lack of a better term, the tip of the iceberg. Most of that touchdown you just witnessed happened before the play, definitely before the game, and possibly before the season.
THAT IS NOT THE CASE WHEN YOU WATCH TIM TEBOW.
Of course he practices and the Broncos have a game plan, but the thing Tebow has on the "best" quarterbacks in the league is that he is much better at improvising than they are and I don't think that is arguable. I don't mean to say that Tim Tebow is as good a player as Tom Brady, but Tim Tebow is raw and there's something sort of artistic about something so unrefined.
The picks:
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
4:30 pm, Saturday
This is the first of three match ups that feel very similar. The three quarterbacks a top-of-my-head rundown of the best in the league all have very bad defenses and are playing against very good defenses. If you've ever read this blog or spoken to me before, you know which type of team I'm dying to pick in all of these games.
But this one's easy (mainly because I don't care about missing these picks).
Th 49ers are at home and, more importantly, the Saints aren't. The one hesitation I would have about picking the 49ers is the fact that Alex Smith is their quarterback but really, I'm probably going to pick the Ravens against Houston and is Smith really that much worse than Flacco? He's worse, but not in any way that I care about.
The Saints had better come with their best routine or they will lose this game. We all drool over the New Orleans offense and good-guy persona and dismiss the perceived neanderthal style of the Harbaugh family but there are things we are forgetting.
1. Just last season, the Saints lost to one of the worst playoff teams of all time on the road. The final nail in the coffin was hammered in by Marshawn Lynch, a slightly above average running back who made one of the best runs in playoff history; a play which doubled as one of the worst defensive plays in sports history. The way the Saints secondary kept trying to strip the ball when they game would have still been in doubt if they had just tackled him and subsequently gave up a game-clinching touchdown was shameful. That play speaks to the Saints' attitude on defense, which, when the chips are down, indifference.
2. The year the Saints won the Super Bowl, they played inside twice and once in Miami. The NFC Championship game was won on a Favre interception that looked like he was paid to do it and the Super Bowl on a commendable, yet still somewhat lucky surprise onside kick.
3. The 2011/2012 NFL playoffs currently consist of 25% Harbaugh.
4. Alex Smith is a mediocre quarterback. What can make up for that in the playoffs, you ask? A really good coach, a really good defense, and home field advantage.
Check, check, aaaaaaand check.
49ers over Saints, 23-17
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
8:00 pm, Saturday
I'm getting chills just thinking about the Denver Broncos...CHILLS.
The misconception about the game between these two teams was that it was a blowout.
Again, with these dance troupe teams, when you lose by 21, how it happens matters. When the Broncos lost 41-23, it was fairly encouraging as far as I'm concerned. Now, let's say that the Patriots got up 38-0 and backed into a 41-23 victory. That would not have been encouraging. But the Broncos were up 16-7! New England was not stopping the Denver offense (they don't stop ANY offense) until the Broncos started inexplicably fumbling inside their own territory. Then the machine got going and the rout was on. The score doesn't tell us how close the game was, it's how long Denver was in it. As long as you keep it close and make these teams play the game of football, you're in fantastic position to win. Denver was in that game.
A couple facts to throw at you:
1. The Patriots haven't won a playoff game since they lost in the Super Bowl to Eli's Giants to go 18-1.
2. The Patriots haven't beaten a team with a winning record all season.
However, I'm still picking the Patriots. I hate this pick, but that doesn't make it any worse of a pick (probably makes it better). I have heard way too much about Tim Tebow in the national media for me to feel comfortable picking him. All of a sudden he's more of a cult figure than Tom Brady and I don't think I can go against Brady when he has even a whiff of underdog smell on him.
Patriots over Broncos, 31-21
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
1:00 pm, Sunday
Marvin Lewis needs to be let go. His role for his whole career was basically to be Chad Johnson/Ochocinco's dad and he's gone now. This team doesn't need a babysitter, it needs someone who knows when it's appropriate to challenge a play and when it's not. I've always liked Marvin...but frankly, I don't know why. I'll miss him, but not that much.
The Texans were the most complete team in the AFC with a top defense, a good passing game, and a great running game. However, their coach and quarterback were both guys with a history of losing games they were in position to win and I had no confidence in either of them.
The Texans are currently a really good team with some very key injuries but I'm not sure it's made a huge difference in terms of results. Gary Kubiak has always failed as a clutch decision-maker but sometimes when you're forced to scramble (like when you're onto your third-string rookie quarterback, for example), you feel as if you're playing with house money and the nerves go out the window. The Texans are playing with more confidence now than when they had a better team.
On the flip side, T.J. Yates is super limited, and that shit doesn't fly against the Baltimore Ravens, I don't care how old they are.
This will not be a good game. Flacco's recent comments about how he gets no credit for wins is laughable. He's a mediocre quarterback, period. That's why I don't want to pick him to win...but I will.
Ravens over Texans, 17-6
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
4:30 pm, Sunday
This is the Super Bowl of this weekend.
Throughout this whole post, I've been somewhat mocking the Brady/Brees/Rodgers triumvirate as if they really are dancers as suggested by the discount double-check commercial, but let's make one thing clear:
These Packers are fearsome.
The Patriots use their choreography to mask their lack of athleticism and the Saints do it because they're on turf. The Packers do it because WHY THE FUCK NOT?! They run some kind of west coast offense on cocaine (the GOOD stuff) where all the slants are 15 yards down field. They have four wide receivers who I would call, "great after the catch," and a quarterback who is accurate, strong-armed, mobile, smart and has a quick release. In fact, Aaron Rodgers is all of those things at an elite level in the NFL. I'm pretty sure the only team left that can beat them is the New York Giants.
The Giants are mean. You saw it last week. Their games are confusing. They give up a sloppy safety early in the game and then go on to shut out the Falcons' offense the entire day. They stopped two fourth and inches'. That front four might actually be monsters. Sometimes they sleep and let the Seahawks get by, but if you're big enough to catch their attention, they are going to try to eat you. THIS IS NOT AN ANALOGY OR HYPERBOLE.
OK, maybe it's both, but still...
I'm really going to enjoy watching this game and I'm going to be rooting hard for the Giants. I am, however, going to keep my Super Bowl pick (which is in my head) intact while it's still possible. Great finale to the weekend.
Packers over Giants 31-28.
I do my best not to overreact to things and even to draw attention to it when the world overreacts to something, but how can you not love Tebow at this point? Sure, if you're a Steelers fan you probably still hate him, but Steelers fans a. aren't human beings and b. can't read...so who cares?!
A quick thought on Tebow:
The best quarterbacks in the league: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. Only one of those players could be even considered an above-average athlete by NFL quarterback standards (Rodgers) and still, those offensive are essentially choreographed dances. When you watch a successful play by any one of those teams, you're watching, for lack of a better term, the tip of the iceberg. Most of that touchdown you just witnessed happened before the play, definitely before the game, and possibly before the season.
THAT IS NOT THE CASE WHEN YOU WATCH TIM TEBOW.
Of course he practices and the Broncos have a game plan, but the thing Tebow has on the "best" quarterbacks in the league is that he is much better at improvising than they are and I don't think that is arguable. I don't mean to say that Tim Tebow is as good a player as Tom Brady, but Tim Tebow is raw and there's something sort of artistic about something so unrefined.
The picks:
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
4:30 pm, Saturday
This is the first of three match ups that feel very similar. The three quarterbacks a top-of-my-head rundown of the best in the league all have very bad defenses and are playing against very good defenses. If you've ever read this blog or spoken to me before, you know which type of team I'm dying to pick in all of these games.
But this one's easy (mainly because I don't care about missing these picks).
Th 49ers are at home and, more importantly, the Saints aren't. The one hesitation I would have about picking the 49ers is the fact that Alex Smith is their quarterback but really, I'm probably going to pick the Ravens against Houston and is Smith really that much worse than Flacco? He's worse, but not in any way that I care about.
The Saints had better come with their best routine or they will lose this game. We all drool over the New Orleans offense and good-guy persona and dismiss the perceived neanderthal style of the Harbaugh family but there are things we are forgetting.
1. Just last season, the Saints lost to one of the worst playoff teams of all time on the road. The final nail in the coffin was hammered in by Marshawn Lynch, a slightly above average running back who made one of the best runs in playoff history; a play which doubled as one of the worst defensive plays in sports history. The way the Saints secondary kept trying to strip the ball when they game would have still been in doubt if they had just tackled him and subsequently gave up a game-clinching touchdown was shameful. That play speaks to the Saints' attitude on defense, which, when the chips are down, indifference.
2. The year the Saints won the Super Bowl, they played inside twice and once in Miami. The NFC Championship game was won on a Favre interception that looked like he was paid to do it and the Super Bowl on a commendable, yet still somewhat lucky surprise onside kick.
3. The 2011/2012 NFL playoffs currently consist of 25% Harbaugh.
4. Alex Smith is a mediocre quarterback. What can make up for that in the playoffs, you ask? A really good coach, a really good defense, and home field advantage.
Check, check, aaaaaaand check.
49ers over Saints, 23-17
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
8:00 pm, Saturday
I'm getting chills just thinking about the Denver Broncos...CHILLS.
The misconception about the game between these two teams was that it was a blowout.
Again, with these dance troupe teams, when you lose by 21, how it happens matters. When the Broncos lost 41-23, it was fairly encouraging as far as I'm concerned. Now, let's say that the Patriots got up 38-0 and backed into a 41-23 victory. That would not have been encouraging. But the Broncos were up 16-7! New England was not stopping the Denver offense (they don't stop ANY offense) until the Broncos started inexplicably fumbling inside their own territory. Then the machine got going and the rout was on. The score doesn't tell us how close the game was, it's how long Denver was in it. As long as you keep it close and make these teams play the game of football, you're in fantastic position to win. Denver was in that game.
A couple facts to throw at you:
1. The Patriots haven't won a playoff game since they lost in the Super Bowl to Eli's Giants to go 18-1.
2. The Patriots haven't beaten a team with a winning record all season.
However, I'm still picking the Patriots. I hate this pick, but that doesn't make it any worse of a pick (probably makes it better). I have heard way too much about Tim Tebow in the national media for me to feel comfortable picking him. All of a sudden he's more of a cult figure than Tom Brady and I don't think I can go against Brady when he has even a whiff of underdog smell on him.
Patriots over Broncos, 31-21
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
1:00 pm, Sunday
Marvin Lewis needs to be let go. His role for his whole career was basically to be Chad Johnson/Ochocinco's dad and he's gone now. This team doesn't need a babysitter, it needs someone who knows when it's appropriate to challenge a play and when it's not. I've always liked Marvin...but frankly, I don't know why. I'll miss him, but not that much.
The Texans were the most complete team in the AFC with a top defense, a good passing game, and a great running game. However, their coach and quarterback were both guys with a history of losing games they were in position to win and I had no confidence in either of them.
The Texans are currently a really good team with some very key injuries but I'm not sure it's made a huge difference in terms of results. Gary Kubiak has always failed as a clutch decision-maker but sometimes when you're forced to scramble (like when you're onto your third-string rookie quarterback, for example), you feel as if you're playing with house money and the nerves go out the window. The Texans are playing with more confidence now than when they had a better team.
On the flip side, T.J. Yates is super limited, and that shit doesn't fly against the Baltimore Ravens, I don't care how old they are.
This will not be a good game. Flacco's recent comments about how he gets no credit for wins is laughable. He's a mediocre quarterback, period. That's why I don't want to pick him to win...but I will.
Ravens over Texans, 17-6
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
4:30 pm, Sunday
This is the Super Bowl of this weekend.
Throughout this whole post, I've been somewhat mocking the Brady/Brees/Rodgers triumvirate as if they really are dancers as suggested by the discount double-check commercial, but let's make one thing clear:
These Packers are fearsome.
The Patriots use their choreography to mask their lack of athleticism and the Saints do it because they're on turf. The Packers do it because WHY THE FUCK NOT?! They run some kind of west coast offense on cocaine (the GOOD stuff) where all the slants are 15 yards down field. They have four wide receivers who I would call, "great after the catch," and a quarterback who is accurate, strong-armed, mobile, smart and has a quick release. In fact, Aaron Rodgers is all of those things at an elite level in the NFL. I'm pretty sure the only team left that can beat them is the New York Giants.
The Giants are mean. You saw it last week. Their games are confusing. They give up a sloppy safety early in the game and then go on to shut out the Falcons' offense the entire day. They stopped two fourth and inches'. That front four might actually be monsters. Sometimes they sleep and let the Seahawks get by, but if you're big enough to catch their attention, they are going to try to eat you. THIS IS NOT AN ANALOGY OR HYPERBOLE.
OK, maybe it's both, but still...
I'm really going to enjoy watching this game and I'm going to be rooting hard for the Giants. I am, however, going to keep my Super Bowl pick (which is in my head) intact while it's still possible. Great finale to the weekend.
Packers over Giants 31-28.
Friday, January 6, 2012
2012 NFL Playoffs (The final playoffs in human history)
Here's what I've been doing instead of posting in the last couple months:
Dark Souls, Elder Scrolls, Game of Thrones, Bell Hoppin', Homer, Tim Tebow, new house...I think that's it. Almost all of those things are better than this blog so, if you have access to any of them, go do that now and read this later. (For the record, Tim Tebow is the name of my rec basketball team and is in no way referring to the player himself. Any similarities are purely coincidental).
But since the Bengals have made it to the playoffs, I feel I have a responsibility to pick against them.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
4:15 pm, Saturday
In the last few seasons, the Bengals have been going through a sort of detox. The three years following the offensive boom and subsequent Carson Palmer left knee boom the Bengals had just been trying to regain the ease and machine-like efficiency they had to their offense in '05 and failed in a variety of ways, 2006 being the most memorable. That era ended in with the year that Ryan Fitzpatrick played most of the season and Chad Johnson "played" most of the season. That year seemed like rock bottom...but wasn't.
In 2009 the detox began. Being on Hard Knocks seemed almost like therapy in the form of confession. It also helped show the world what it's like to be a Bengal (not that easy) and what Marvin Lewis has to go through. That year, the team was based on running the ball and defense which was a first in Bengal history. That year was not easy however, Carson handed every ball off with his right hand because his left thumb was hurt and his deep threat broke his arm and then died mid-season. They gained about 43 yards in their playoff game against the Jets.
Instead of building on what they had done, the stupidly signed Terrell Owens, probably the worst person in the league and lost every ounce of good Karma they had going. Their record: 4-12.
In 2011, every memorable offensive player has been replaced by rookies or nobody. Rookies who have shown more character than most players the Bengals have ever had. They haven't made the New Orleans Saints style turnaround yet, but they've learned to play through the bad luck that just seems to come with playing for the Bengals, and that's really all you can do. I truly appreciate what this team has done for me as a fan. They're uncommonly steady.
With that said, they've never really gone "all the way" this season. They've had seven chances to beat a playoff team and they have seven losses, all to playoff teams. There is something to be said for beating "who you're supposed to beat (and I think I've said all of them above)" but these are the playoffs. They've played just about everyone tough, but I can't pick them to win a road playoff game until I've seen them do something like it before. I hate myself for doing it but I'm doing it.
Texans over Bengals, 24-16
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
8:00 pm, Saturday
I don't like what I'm going to do here either.
The Detroit Lions can absolutely beat the Saints. Calvin Johnson cannot be stopped by the Saints unless they use their entire secondary to cover him (which they did earlier in the season when Nate Burleson had 93 yards receiving). The Lions should score every time they get the ball.
But that's the problem. The Lions are the type of team that forgets to score. They threw for 408 yards the last time they played the Saints and only scored 17 points. Penalties, turnovers, and other various errors due to lack of concentration are the Lions' M.O. And conversely, the Saints ALWAYS remember to score. This is a game between the hard-worker and the super-talent and the hard-worker is at home. I'm always the first one to call the Saints a fraud but the Lions play right into their hands. If Detroit forgets that it's stupid and gets hot for a game, they can move on but again, I haven't seen it happen yet.
Saints over Lions 48-31
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants
1:00 pm, Sunday
FRAUD! FRAUD!!!
Here's another NFC South team that I will openly call a fraud. Matt Ryan has marginally improved since his rookie season (and example of my greatest fear about Andy Dalton) and does nothing to convince me that he is someone I need to be afraid of in a big game. The rest of the team seems very capable (Ryan included) but doesn't catch my eye in any significant way.
The strange thing about this game is that the Falcons love to play at home and the Giants love to play on the road (particularly as an underdog). Someone on the Giants needs to say something stupid so public opinion slides to the Falcons or the Giants are in real trouble. I can't emphasize enough that the Giants do not deal well with minimal adversity. The one encouraging sign was that they beat the Cowboys last week in a must win game with their home crowd actually cheering them on (usually they hate that!).
Side note: Look at the Chicago Bears. That's approximately what the Giants would look like if Eli got hurt. Probably not coincidentally, Jay Cutler and Eli Manning are my two favorite quarterbacks in the league because of how much responsibility they have to their teams and how much unwarranted flack they get.
Anyway, we have a very flawed team at home against a flawless but unremarkable team. I think you know who I like.
Giants over Falcons 27-20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
4:30 pm, Sunday
I want to say that this game all depends on Roethlisberger's ankle, but it doesn't.
No matter how Big Ben's ankle feels, the Steelers are going to win and I say this only because I have confidence that Pittsburgh can score at least one point.
As fun as Tim Tebow has been this season, I think it's over.
I submit this challenge to Tebow (since he seems to love those): I don't believe that you can score any points against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Steelers over Broncos, 13-0
Dark Souls, Elder Scrolls, Game of Thrones, Bell Hoppin', Homer, Tim Tebow, new house...I think that's it. Almost all of those things are better than this blog so, if you have access to any of them, go do that now and read this later. (For the record, Tim Tebow is the name of my rec basketball team and is in no way referring to the player himself. Any similarities are purely coincidental).
But since the Bengals have made it to the playoffs, I feel I have a responsibility to pick against them.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
4:15 pm, Saturday
In the last few seasons, the Bengals have been going through a sort of detox. The three years following the offensive boom and subsequent Carson Palmer left knee boom the Bengals had just been trying to regain the ease and machine-like efficiency they had to their offense in '05 and failed in a variety of ways, 2006 being the most memorable. That era ended in with the year that Ryan Fitzpatrick played most of the season and Chad Johnson "played" most of the season. That year seemed like rock bottom...but wasn't.
In 2009 the detox began. Being on Hard Knocks seemed almost like therapy in the form of confession. It also helped show the world what it's like to be a Bengal (not that easy) and what Marvin Lewis has to go through. That year, the team was based on running the ball and defense which was a first in Bengal history. That year was not easy however, Carson handed every ball off with his right hand because his left thumb was hurt and his deep threat broke his arm and then died mid-season. They gained about 43 yards in their playoff game against the Jets.
Instead of building on what they had done, the stupidly signed Terrell Owens, probably the worst person in the league and lost every ounce of good Karma they had going. Their record: 4-12.
In 2011, every memorable offensive player has been replaced by rookies or nobody. Rookies who have shown more character than most players the Bengals have ever had. They haven't made the New Orleans Saints style turnaround yet, but they've learned to play through the bad luck that just seems to come with playing for the Bengals, and that's really all you can do. I truly appreciate what this team has done for me as a fan. They're uncommonly steady.
With that said, they've never really gone "all the way" this season. They've had seven chances to beat a playoff team and they have seven losses, all to playoff teams. There is something to be said for beating "who you're supposed to beat (and I think I've said all of them above)" but these are the playoffs. They've played just about everyone tough, but I can't pick them to win a road playoff game until I've seen them do something like it before. I hate myself for doing it but I'm doing it.
Texans over Bengals, 24-16
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
8:00 pm, Saturday
I don't like what I'm going to do here either.
The Detroit Lions can absolutely beat the Saints. Calvin Johnson cannot be stopped by the Saints unless they use their entire secondary to cover him (which they did earlier in the season when Nate Burleson had 93 yards receiving). The Lions should score every time they get the ball.
But that's the problem. The Lions are the type of team that forgets to score. They threw for 408 yards the last time they played the Saints and only scored 17 points. Penalties, turnovers, and other various errors due to lack of concentration are the Lions' M.O. And conversely, the Saints ALWAYS remember to score. This is a game between the hard-worker and the super-talent and the hard-worker is at home. I'm always the first one to call the Saints a fraud but the Lions play right into their hands. If Detroit forgets that it's stupid and gets hot for a game, they can move on but again, I haven't seen it happen yet.
Saints over Lions 48-31
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants
1:00 pm, Sunday
FRAUD! FRAUD!!!
Here's another NFC South team that I will openly call a fraud. Matt Ryan has marginally improved since his rookie season (and example of my greatest fear about Andy Dalton) and does nothing to convince me that he is someone I need to be afraid of in a big game. The rest of the team seems very capable (Ryan included) but doesn't catch my eye in any significant way.
The strange thing about this game is that the Falcons love to play at home and the Giants love to play on the road (particularly as an underdog). Someone on the Giants needs to say something stupid so public opinion slides to the Falcons or the Giants are in real trouble. I can't emphasize enough that the Giants do not deal well with minimal adversity. The one encouraging sign was that they beat the Cowboys last week in a must win game with their home crowd actually cheering them on (usually they hate that!).
Side note: Look at the Chicago Bears. That's approximately what the Giants would look like if Eli got hurt. Probably not coincidentally, Jay Cutler and Eli Manning are my two favorite quarterbacks in the league because of how much responsibility they have to their teams and how much unwarranted flack they get.
Anyway, we have a very flawed team at home against a flawless but unremarkable team. I think you know who I like.
Giants over Falcons 27-20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
4:30 pm, Sunday
I want to say that this game all depends on Roethlisberger's ankle, but it doesn't.
No matter how Big Ben's ankle feels, the Steelers are going to win and I say this only because I have confidence that Pittsburgh can score at least one point.
As fun as Tim Tebow has been this season, I think it's over.
I submit this challenge to Tebow (since he seems to love those): I don't believe that you can score any points against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Steelers over Broncos, 13-0
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