Before we discuss Jay Cutler, the Super Bowl match up, why I'm so bad at picking games or any other sport, I'd like to discuss a mental state that I have dubbed "Dive Mode."
Dive Mode is not the name of a new workout routine or anything that really comes from preparation at all. It's rare and mostly unnecessary (for pros especially). It's so rare, in fact, that I can only remember one time in my entire sporting career when I have executed it successfully, and it lasted for about a day and a half.
Last year I attended an Ultimate Frisbee tournament with my sister's team. Going into this tournament I knew a few things:
Dive List
1. I was severely outmatched by most attendees in experience.
2. Not much was specifically expected of me, and I didn't have any explicit responsibilities that would require me to play "under control" or worry about what others were doing.
3. I was in pretty decent shape, being 22 years old and playing pick-up basketball several times a week at the time.
4. I DID know how to play the game and had my own theories about how to translate skills from other sports I play to this one and was confident enough in my abilities to complete most simple plays in this game.
Given those things, I decided I was going to do my best to forget about what everyone else was doing, make every routine play in the game and, perhaps most importantly, dive at every opportunity if I thought I had any chance at affecting the play positively. This might not sound so rare at first but there are a few concepts that inescapably go along with this mentality.
To get this out of the way first, I'm not talking about the "fall over on your face gently" dive. I'm talking about the "I look like I'm trying to knock the wind out of myself/if it's raining I'm going to slide a minimum 10 feet" dive.
So let's ask ourselves: Why don't we normally dive?
1. It's unpleasant, especially if you're not on grass.
2. I'm probably not going to get whatever I'm diving for anyway.
3. If I don't get it, I just wasted a lot of effort to dive, get back up, recover and continue to play, so I might as well save my energy.*
I put a star next to #3 for a reason.
If you enter dive mode, you have to be prepared to dive, fail, get back up and go cover your guy again at maximum effort or you're not in dive mode. If I was too tired or too sore to do this, I subbed out. Let's review the Dive List:
1. If I weren't outmatched in experience (and usually skill), why would I need to do this? And how about this question . . . if I didn't NEED to do this, why WOULD I? I wouldn't.
2. If I had to play under control, if it were a big deal if I had to sub out or if I were injured, it would be pretty irresponsible to play this way. Bob Sanders of the Indianapolis Colts plays this way all the time in the regular season and, as a result, is hurt more often than not. He is so important to the Colts' defense that when he does this and injures himself, it actually hurts the team.
3. Obviously, if I physically couldn't execute these actions, they wouldn't have happened. More on this later.
4. Ditto.
The tournament lasted 3 days . . . so why did MY Dive Mode only last a day and a half? I couldn't keep it up. Pick-up basketball shape is not the same as Dive Mode Frisbee shape, evidently. And so, the results of the weekend were that everyone thought I was better than I was and I couldn't walk correctly for about three weeks.
Most of you are probably wondering, "Can't you think of a pro sports example? Why are you talking about yourself so much? Why do I care about you? I really REALLY don't care about you."
Well, the best example I can think of is that play in last year's Eastern Conference Finals where Rajon Rondo dove for that ball, got up illegally and scored. The Celtics had already won the first two games ON THE ROAD as the underdog in the Eastern Conference Finals. They were at home and winning at the time. You could tell it was unusual because of how confused Jason Williams looked. He could have gotten to the ball. He just had no idea Rondo was going to dive for a play he didn't need. It even confused the refs, because getting up with that ball is a blatant travel (I think), but nobody blew the whistle. That play, along with being totally crazy and awesome, was such a huge throat stomp. That's why it was so cool and why the Celtics almost won the Title last year when everyone (including myself) thought they were too old. DIVE MODE!
Oh yeah, the other question. Why do you care? Well, go back and watch the Pittsburgh Steelers' last two first downs in the AFC title game against the Jets and try to tell me a WELL PLACED dive wouldn't have stopped those. (I emphasize "well placed." I know a guy dove on one of them, but it was piss poor as far as I'm concerned.) I know it's a lot to ask of an entire defense to enter an otherworldly mental state in the middle of a game, and I'm not even really asking them to. I'm just here to tell you that if the Jets wanted to go to the Super Bowl, that is what they had to do. You saw Rex Ryan throw his headset on the sidelines after those plays. That's not the reaction of a guy who called the wrong play or was caught off guard. That's a guy who called the right play, had a chance to get the ball back and win, and whose players didn't technically let him down but, at the same time, kind of did.
I'm asking everyone to be ready to break ribs to make every play in every useless game, but there is a lesson to be learned from the Steelers going to the Super Bowl again.
That lesson: In a game you really care about, you never want to look back and wonder, "Should I have dove?"
Friday, January 28, 2011
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Conference Title Sunday
Before we get to the picks, let's talk about the one game I got wrong last week.
The Ravens screwed me out of going 4-0 last week so badly I might never pick them to win anything ever again. Remember when I talked about punting being a good thing in that game? Well, it's REALLY REALLY good when you find yourself up 21-7 on the road. Let your defense win that game. Honestly, the game was over when Ray Rice fumbled on that screen pass. You don't recover from that momentum swing and the Steelers are experts at accepting choke-jobs. If you're aiming a gun at your foot, Pittsburgh will do all it can to make you feel comfortable as you pull the trigger.
Seriously though, kneel down three times and punt EVERY drive. If Baltimore would have done that, we would be watching a playoffs where the last four teams are all teams that I wouldn't mind see winning the Super Bowl and I can't even tell you how rare that is. But now, because of the Ravens' "stupidness," I have to bite my nails for the rest of the playoffs hoping this stupid Steelers' team with no offensive line or running game doesn't bullshit their way to yet another Super Bowl.
Picks.
Packers at Bears,
3:00 pm, Sunday
The line for this game: Packers -3.5.
That's all I need to know to pick this game.
The Bears and Packers split their regular season match ups. The Bears won at home (they'll be playing at home) and the Packers won BARELY at Green Bay when they needed it a hell of a lot more than the Bears did. You can't give a road team this many points against a team with a better record on the road who they aren't even better than. It's the biggest hex ever.
Now I'll give you the fact that the Bears don't win pretty and the Packers played better than they have ever played since the preseason in that Falcons game but that's exactly why the Bears are a bad match up for the Packers. The Packers need to find a rhythm. They play fast-break football on offense and defense and yet, their coach often plays to lose. Does anybody remember that they should have lost to the Eagles after outplaying them all game? Way to keep your foot on the pedal, McCarthey.
The Bears don't even have a rhythm. They win games in the grey areas. They get turnovers, big plays on offense and they have the best special teams in the league. They don't get the instinctive worry that the Packers would get if they notice their game is thrown off by the cold, the wind or the other team and they don't have the pressure of America's backing.
I like Aaron Rodgers, but I would just LOVE to see Jay Cutler in the Super Bowl.
Bears over Packers,
28-24
Jets at Steelers,
6:30 pm, Sunday
This is probably the toughest task Rex Ryan has had thus far in the playoffs.
Rex "Let's Get A Fuckin' Snack" Ryan has successfully hidden/accentuated the talents of Mark Sanchez perfectly so far in the playoffs. Against a team that reaps benefits better than any team I've ever seen, it's going to be quite the task.
But you know what? Screw it.
For the team he has in this landscape of the NFL and for where his team fits into the league, he is the best coach in the NFL. I think he can do it.
Jets over Steelers,
14-13
The Ravens screwed me out of going 4-0 last week so badly I might never pick them to win anything ever again. Remember when I talked about punting being a good thing in that game? Well, it's REALLY REALLY good when you find yourself up 21-7 on the road. Let your defense win that game. Honestly, the game was over when Ray Rice fumbled on that screen pass. You don't recover from that momentum swing and the Steelers are experts at accepting choke-jobs. If you're aiming a gun at your foot, Pittsburgh will do all it can to make you feel comfortable as you pull the trigger.
Seriously though, kneel down three times and punt EVERY drive. If Baltimore would have done that, we would be watching a playoffs where the last four teams are all teams that I wouldn't mind see winning the Super Bowl and I can't even tell you how rare that is. But now, because of the Ravens' "stupidness," I have to bite my nails for the rest of the playoffs hoping this stupid Steelers' team with no offensive line or running game doesn't bullshit their way to yet another Super Bowl.
Picks.
Packers at Bears,
3:00 pm, Sunday
The line for this game: Packers -3.5.
That's all I need to know to pick this game.
The Bears and Packers split their regular season match ups. The Bears won at home (they'll be playing at home) and the Packers won BARELY at Green Bay when they needed it a hell of a lot more than the Bears did. You can't give a road team this many points against a team with a better record on the road who they aren't even better than. It's the biggest hex ever.
Now I'll give you the fact that the Bears don't win pretty and the Packers played better than they have ever played since the preseason in that Falcons game but that's exactly why the Bears are a bad match up for the Packers. The Packers need to find a rhythm. They play fast-break football on offense and defense and yet, their coach often plays to lose. Does anybody remember that they should have lost to the Eagles after outplaying them all game? Way to keep your foot on the pedal, McCarthey.
The Bears don't even have a rhythm. They win games in the grey areas. They get turnovers, big plays on offense and they have the best special teams in the league. They don't get the instinctive worry that the Packers would get if they notice their game is thrown off by the cold, the wind or the other team and they don't have the pressure of America's backing.
I like Aaron Rodgers, but I would just LOVE to see Jay Cutler in the Super Bowl.
Bears over Packers,
28-24
Jets at Steelers,
6:30 pm, Sunday
This is probably the toughest task Rex Ryan has had thus far in the playoffs.
Rex "Let's Get A Fuckin' Snack" Ryan has successfully hidden/accentuated the talents of Mark Sanchez perfectly so far in the playoffs. Against a team that reaps benefits better than any team I've ever seen, it's going to be quite the task.
But you know what? Screw it.
For the team he has in this landscape of the NFL and for where his team fits into the league, he is the best coach in the NFL. I think he can do it.
Jets over Steelers,
14-13
Thursday, January 13, 2011
NFL Playoffs: Round Two
Just because I only predicted one games out of four correctly last weekend doesn't mean I've lost the ability to analyze those games and act as if I completely understand what occurred in those games. Let's get to it.
Key play in the Seattle game:
On the first New Orleans drive, they kicked a field goal from approximately the 10 yard line. The Saints did this because Reggie Bush dropped one of the easiest possible catches on third down and short. They ended up losing by that four points (plus the missed two-point conversion which gives us the five point difference), but that's not why it was so important. It was important because WHY DID YOU DROP THAT?!?! The Saints didn't take the crowd and the Seahawks' confidence out of the game when they had the chance. This is an oversimplification and really, there's no real reason the Seahawks should have won. They're bad. Let's see what happens moving forward.
The Ravens/Chiefs game happened EXACTLY AS I PREDICTED so let's just move on, shall we?
I'd like to go on the record as saying that I think both losing quarterbacks in the two close games played really really well.
The problem with the Colts in the playoffs isn't usually Peyton Manning choking (in my opinion). Their coaches have consistently laid down their hand in week 1. "We think Peyton Manning can win us the Super Bowl by himself and we will not try anything risky or creative." That doesn't win in the playoffs unless you're playing against Rex Grossman.
Michael Vick, after his final interception, said something about "going down swinging." I love that. Nobody else who recently got out of prison would talk about "going down swinging" in the press conference. They would all give us the bullshit about being thankful for being able to compete again or whatever. Vick was talking about the game and he took a smart risk because he's a man. PROFANITY ALERT: Fuck spiking the ball. I'm a Michael Vick guy.
Picks.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
4:30 pm, Saturday
These two teams are so unique in that you WANT to punt. The team that punts the most will probably win. If Kansas City would have punted instead of turning it over, they would have had a chance. I knew Matt Cassell was going to do what he was going to do. I'm awesome.
Ben Roethlisberger refuses to play quarterback they way you're supposed to. If it's ones of those pass plays that's not, "Hey, we're going deep," or, "hey, it's a slant/screen pass," he is going to wait until the play breaks down before throwing the ball EVERY TIME. That works against most teams most of the time because his receivers have figured out that the way to get the ball in this offense is to be great at changing your route when the play breaks down. Also, "Big Ben" is perfect at dodging rushers without being very fast. Nowadays their offensive line is really bad and playing that way is really dangerous, especially against the Ravenous Ravenous Ravens. But hey, who knows?
Ravens over Steelers
13-6
Green Bay at Atlanta
8:00 pm, Saturday
A battle between two teams who are trying to take over. There aren't really any reasons these teams would be WORSE next season. Most things have gone right for the Falcons so far and most things have actually gone wrong for the Pack Attack...but they're still around and very very dangerous.
The only thing I don't like about the Packers is that America loves them so much. Aaron Rodgers is better than Matt Ryan.
Packers over Falcons
31-24
Seattle at Chicago
1:00 pm, Sunday
The key to this game is this:
America has swung in favor of the Seahawks. That's it.
If this game goes the way I think it might, Matt Hasselbeck's career is in jeopardy by 2:30 pm Sunday afternoon.
Bears over Seahawks
27-0
New York Jets at New England
4:30 pm, Sunday
I know this doesn't make any sense, but this is the biggest game of the weekend.
There is a way the Jets can win this game (they've beaten Bradichick earlier this year for God's sake!!). Here's a dork-ass reference, but you'll get what I'm saying even if you're not one.
I played this game called Dragon Age: Origins. At one point, you encounter a "sloth demon" who puts you to sleep and you have to do all these things in your own dreams to get out of this dream. This ends up being a pretty big chunk of the game.
That is what Belichick and Brady do to you. They put you in a nightmare that you have to fight against as well as playing the actual game and once you wake up, the game's over and you lost by 42. You can't get caught up in this if you want to beat them. Here's what I would do.
On defense, the Jets need to create any kind of chaos. I don't care if it allows Brady to throw a deep ball touchdown more than once. The short passing game is the bad dream. Don't fall asleep.
On offense? Straight ahead. The Jets' offense is stronger than the Patriots defense. Don't run a single play that relies on fooling anybody. You're not smarter than the Patriots but the way that you can be smarter is by knowing you're not smarter.
Can the Jets execute this plan?
Yes.
Jets over Patriots
21-20
Key play in the Seattle game:
On the first New Orleans drive, they kicked a field goal from approximately the 10 yard line. The Saints did this because Reggie Bush dropped one of the easiest possible catches on third down and short. They ended up losing by that four points (plus the missed two-point conversion which gives us the five point difference), but that's not why it was so important. It was important because WHY DID YOU DROP THAT?!?! The Saints didn't take the crowd and the Seahawks' confidence out of the game when they had the chance. This is an oversimplification and really, there's no real reason the Seahawks should have won. They're bad. Let's see what happens moving forward.
The Ravens/Chiefs game happened EXACTLY AS I PREDICTED so let's just move on, shall we?
I'd like to go on the record as saying that I think both losing quarterbacks in the two close games played really really well.
The problem with the Colts in the playoffs isn't usually Peyton Manning choking (in my opinion). Their coaches have consistently laid down their hand in week 1. "We think Peyton Manning can win us the Super Bowl by himself and we will not try anything risky or creative." That doesn't win in the playoffs unless you're playing against Rex Grossman.
Michael Vick, after his final interception, said something about "going down swinging." I love that. Nobody else who recently got out of prison would talk about "going down swinging" in the press conference. They would all give us the bullshit about being thankful for being able to compete again or whatever. Vick was talking about the game and he took a smart risk because he's a man. PROFANITY ALERT: Fuck spiking the ball. I'm a Michael Vick guy.
Picks.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
4:30 pm, Saturday
These two teams are so unique in that you WANT to punt. The team that punts the most will probably win. If Kansas City would have punted instead of turning it over, they would have had a chance. I knew Matt Cassell was going to do what he was going to do. I'm awesome.
Ben Roethlisberger refuses to play quarterback they way you're supposed to. If it's ones of those pass plays that's not, "Hey, we're going deep," or, "hey, it's a slant/screen pass," he is going to wait until the play breaks down before throwing the ball EVERY TIME. That works against most teams most of the time because his receivers have figured out that the way to get the ball in this offense is to be great at changing your route when the play breaks down. Also, "Big Ben" is perfect at dodging rushers without being very fast. Nowadays their offensive line is really bad and playing that way is really dangerous, especially against the Ravenous Ravenous Ravens. But hey, who knows?
Ravens over Steelers
13-6
Green Bay at Atlanta
8:00 pm, Saturday
A battle between two teams who are trying to take over. There aren't really any reasons these teams would be WORSE next season. Most things have gone right for the Falcons so far and most things have actually gone wrong for the Pack Attack...but they're still around and very very dangerous.
The only thing I don't like about the Packers is that America loves them so much. Aaron Rodgers is better than Matt Ryan.
Packers over Falcons
31-24
Seattle at Chicago
1:00 pm, Sunday
The key to this game is this:
America has swung in favor of the Seahawks. That's it.
If this game goes the way I think it might, Matt Hasselbeck's career is in jeopardy by 2:30 pm Sunday afternoon.
Bears over Seahawks
27-0
New York Jets at New England
4:30 pm, Sunday
I know this doesn't make any sense, but this is the biggest game of the weekend.
There is a way the Jets can win this game (they've beaten Bradichick earlier this year for God's sake!!). Here's a dork-ass reference, but you'll get what I'm saying even if you're not one.
I played this game called Dragon Age: Origins. At one point, you encounter a "sloth demon" who puts you to sleep and you have to do all these things in your own dreams to get out of this dream. This ends up being a pretty big chunk of the game.
That is what Belichick and Brady do to you. They put you in a nightmare that you have to fight against as well as playing the actual game and once you wake up, the game's over and you lost by 42. You can't get caught up in this if you want to beat them. Here's what I would do.
On defense, the Jets need to create any kind of chaos. I don't care if it allows Brady to throw a deep ball touchdown more than once. The short passing game is the bad dream. Don't fall asleep.
On offense? Straight ahead. The Jets' offense is stronger than the Patriots defense. Don't run a single play that relies on fooling anybody. You're not smarter than the Patriots but the way that you can be smarter is by knowing you're not smarter.
Can the Jets execute this plan?
Yes.
Jets over Patriots
21-20
Saturday, January 8, 2011
Playoff Picks: Wildcard Weekend
Before we get started, I'd like to reiterate a point I think I made in the previous post.
I'm glad Marvin Lewis is coming back and I'm glad he's keeping Carson Palmer.
Fans are almost always wrong and if they are right, it's for the wrong reasons. Calling for the firing of Marvin Lewis and saying that Carson Palmer is now a bad quarterback is shortsighted and frankly ignorant in my opinion. What these people are doing is assuming the blame for the losing belongs exclusively to the most visible parts of the team and that the solution is getting of them in favor of, at least from what I've heard, "anything."
I'm not here to tell you that I know exactly how the Bengals' front office and coaching staff works or that I know the precise percentage of blame to be placed on members of the organization or that I know what the solution is. I am here to tell you that I have watched the Bengals A LOT since the mid-nineties and I am of the opinion that those two guys are a lot closer to being the only things holding the Bengals together than the reason they are failing.
Now, how about some picks?
Saturday, 4:30 pm
New Orleans at Seattle
I've watched a fair amount of the "Bad Bs (The Bills, Browns and Bengals)" this season. I also watched last Sunday Night's play-in game between St. Louis and Seattle. The Browns, Bills and Bengals would all win the NFC West by at least three games. Seattle is a bottom five team in the league.
New Orleans over Seattle, 33-13
Saturday, 8:00 pm
New York Jets at Indianapolis
This is one of the two games where I went to bed last night thinking it was a toss-up and woke up this morning feeling very confident in one team.
I think Rex Ryan is hilarious and I really quite like him however that has no bearing on whether I root for him or not and, in fact, I root against him in most match ups. I find this to be interesting. I don't think I feel that way about anybody else in the league.
Uhh...anyway, this Jets team is really offensively talented (for the record, Mark Sanchez seems to be the weak link) and really overrated on defense. What's happening here is a below-average quarterback with a bunch of bad character over-eager wide outs and defensive players going on the road against Peyton Manning at night. This defense will give Peyton less trouble than the statistically embarrassing New England defense because he is smarter than this defense and the he's not necessarily smarter than Bill Belichick. The Colts are not America's clear favorite in this game, two familiar faces at running back just returned (Addai and Rhodes) and they had to try in the last game of the season. For the record, I'd like to say that the Colts, as bad as they looked at points this season, are Super Bowl contenders in my book.
Colts over Jets, 27-16
Sunday, 1:00 pm
Baltimore at Kansas City
I would love for the Chiefs to win this game. I treated Jamaal Charles as if he were my fantasy son this season. The problem is that I can't get away from what my first instinct was when I watched the Chiefs' opening win against the Chargers.
"This team sucks."
Well, they don't suck, but I do think they are going to lose and here is why:
Matt Cassell, as good as he's been, is not very experienced, does not have a strong arm, does not have a great offensive line and doesn't have a decent wide receiver after Dwayne Bowe. I just think that the Ravens live for those situations. I once bet on the Chad Pennington against the Ravens (for some reason). I forgot that the Ravens consume quarterbacks who don't stretch the field. I think the Dolphins lost by 30.
While no one equals Chad Pennington in having a weak arm, Cassell is no stalwart and I think that means a lot against the Ravens. Just for an example, The Bengals are usually worse than the Ravens and Carson Palmer is often turnover prone. However, Palmer IS a stalwart. He's big and strong with a strong arm. Carson Palmer beats the Ravens most of the time.
It's absolutely possible that none of this will mean anything, but I think it does so here is my pick.
Baltimore over Kansas City, 20-10
Sunday, 4:30 pm
Green Bay at Philadelphia
Both of these teams might be Super Bowl contenders which is sort of sad and sort of awesome. There's only a few things that push the result to me in the Eagles' favor:
-Michael Vick got a week of rest.
-Aaron Rodgers seems to have really bad luck
That's it. I guess I also think that Vick is the type of guy who plays better in the playoffs and maybe a lot better.
Philadelphia over Green Bay, 35-27
I'm glad Marvin Lewis is coming back and I'm glad he's keeping Carson Palmer.
Fans are almost always wrong and if they are right, it's for the wrong reasons. Calling for the firing of Marvin Lewis and saying that Carson Palmer is now a bad quarterback is shortsighted and frankly ignorant in my opinion. What these people are doing is assuming the blame for the losing belongs exclusively to the most visible parts of the team and that the solution is getting of them in favor of, at least from what I've heard, "anything."
I'm not here to tell you that I know exactly how the Bengals' front office and coaching staff works or that I know the precise percentage of blame to be placed on members of the organization or that I know what the solution is. I am here to tell you that I have watched the Bengals A LOT since the mid-nineties and I am of the opinion that those two guys are a lot closer to being the only things holding the Bengals together than the reason they are failing.
Now, how about some picks?
Saturday, 4:30 pm
New Orleans at Seattle
I've watched a fair amount of the "Bad Bs (The Bills, Browns and Bengals)" this season. I also watched last Sunday Night's play-in game between St. Louis and Seattle. The Browns, Bills and Bengals would all win the NFC West by at least three games. Seattle is a bottom five team in the league.
New Orleans over Seattle, 33-13
Saturday, 8:00 pm
New York Jets at Indianapolis
This is one of the two games where I went to bed last night thinking it was a toss-up and woke up this morning feeling very confident in one team.
I think Rex Ryan is hilarious and I really quite like him however that has no bearing on whether I root for him or not and, in fact, I root against him in most match ups. I find this to be interesting. I don't think I feel that way about anybody else in the league.
Uhh...anyway, this Jets team is really offensively talented (for the record, Mark Sanchez seems to be the weak link) and really overrated on defense. What's happening here is a below-average quarterback with a bunch of bad character over-eager wide outs and defensive players going on the road against Peyton Manning at night. This defense will give Peyton less trouble than the statistically embarrassing New England defense because he is smarter than this defense and the he's not necessarily smarter than Bill Belichick. The Colts are not America's clear favorite in this game, two familiar faces at running back just returned (Addai and Rhodes) and they had to try in the last game of the season. For the record, I'd like to say that the Colts, as bad as they looked at points this season, are Super Bowl contenders in my book.
Colts over Jets, 27-16
Sunday, 1:00 pm
Baltimore at Kansas City
I would love for the Chiefs to win this game. I treated Jamaal Charles as if he were my fantasy son this season. The problem is that I can't get away from what my first instinct was when I watched the Chiefs' opening win against the Chargers.
"This team sucks."
Well, they don't suck, but I do think they are going to lose and here is why:
Matt Cassell, as good as he's been, is not very experienced, does not have a strong arm, does not have a great offensive line and doesn't have a decent wide receiver after Dwayne Bowe. I just think that the Ravens live for those situations. I once bet on the Chad Pennington against the Ravens (for some reason). I forgot that the Ravens consume quarterbacks who don't stretch the field. I think the Dolphins lost by 30.
While no one equals Chad Pennington in having a weak arm, Cassell is no stalwart and I think that means a lot against the Ravens. Just for an example, The Bengals are usually worse than the Ravens and Carson Palmer is often turnover prone. However, Palmer IS a stalwart. He's big and strong with a strong arm. Carson Palmer beats the Ravens most of the time.
It's absolutely possible that none of this will mean anything, but I think it does so here is my pick.
Baltimore over Kansas City, 20-10
Sunday, 4:30 pm
Green Bay at Philadelphia
Both of these teams might be Super Bowl contenders which is sort of sad and sort of awesome. There's only a few things that push the result to me in the Eagles' favor:
-Michael Vick got a week of rest.
-Aaron Rodgers seems to have really bad luck
That's it. I guess I also think that Vick is the type of guy who plays better in the playoffs and maybe a lot better.
Philadelphia over Green Bay, 35-27
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