The playoffs thus far have been a triumph for defense, and it's great to see.
Before the picks, I'll reveal to you that my original Super Bowl pick was Green Bay over Baltimore. I will now try to explain to myself why that didn't happen and try to figure out what now will happen.
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
3:00 pm, Sunday
If I were twelve years old, I would look at the fact that the Patriots won by a lot and the Ravens won by a little and extrapolate from that information that the Patriots are the more likely team to win.
Now that I'm an adult, I realize that what happened in the previous game (as well as other things that seem like indicators of future performance) are just about irrelevant. But rather than just picking the opposite of what seems to make sense and leaving it at that, I'll try to convince you that the Ravens are going to win.
The Patriots sure are a great offensive team. They aren't as explosive as the Saints or the Packers, but they are coached by the Emperor from Star Wars and have the intimidation factor of having won several Super Bowls. But I will point you to this:
Again, the Patriots have yet to win a Super Bowl when their team is based on extreme efficiency on offense. And they also have still yet to beat a good team this season.
As far as I can tell, New England played three "good" teams this season, all in a row. The Dallas Cowboys, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the New York Giants. In those games, they went 1-2, only beating Dallas, the most gifted losers in football. Not only did New England lose those games, their offensive output was, in no way, impressive (they scored 20, 17 and 20 points in those games in that order). That's alarming.
In fairness, their lowest point total all year after that was 27 and they scored 35 or more six times (seven if you count the playoffs). That's alarming for the Ravens.
But you know what? I don't care about that. To me, the Patriots are the type of team that you have to meet a certain level of competency to even play on the same field as them. Due to the downfall of the Jets and the neck surgery of Peyton Manning, their schedule was shockingly easy for a first place team. They blew team after team out of the water but when a team actually challenged them, they lost most of the time. My sneaking suspicion was that the high-flying teams would be exposed a bit in the playoffs and, so far, I've been right. New England, to me, was actually the worst of the three, they just survived because they played a cupcake 2nd round game against the clueless Broncos.
The Ravens on the other hand looked pretty crappy in a win against the Houston Texans and have all sorts of distractions dealing with their shitty quarterback wanting credit for winning (which he doesn't deserve). Here's the secret though: The Texans, other than the fact that they're playing with one hand behind their back with a rookie quarterback, they are a better team than the Patriots, or at least a far more talented team. But when you play the furious style of football that Baltimore typically plays, the talent of the individual trying to stop the onslaught might matter more than your brilliant scheme.
The Patriots are a team of mediocre talent by playoff standards. The Ravens are a simple team that thrives on a difficult task (much like a certain NFC counterpart). There are mismatches in New England's favor, but I haven't seen the Patriots beat a good team ALL YEAR. That has to mean something.
Ravens over Patriots, 27-23
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
6:30 pm, Sunday
It's difficult to even talk about this game because it just doesn't make much sense. I'm going to pick the Giants and my reasoning is that I believe they are the most complete team and I think they're going to win the Super Bowl...but they were 9-7.
The 49ers are great at stopping the run and, in the regular season, the Giants were really bad at running (however, quite good in the playoffs). You assume that San Francisco will "stop the run," but they really had better stop it completely. Like...zero yards rushing...because I think the Giants have the better quarterback and more experience. Also, the 49ers haven't really been able to run the ball themselves for quite awhile now. That's bad.
A lot of people are optimistic about the 49ers right now. For some reason, I feel that's also bad. Can anyone really picture the niners in the Super Bowl? I didn't think so.
Giants over 49ers, 24-13
Without much analysis on my part I am picking the Patriots and the Giants to win.
ReplyDeleteI simply think that the Ravens have one of the worst offensive coordinators in the league and a defense that is extremely overrated as several of their "good" players are now too slow to cover the Patriots skill position players.
I agree with you that the Giants are the most complete team and are my pick to win the Super Bowl. I would like to point out that I watched the 49ers and Ravens play on Thanksgiving night and in no way thought it looked like a potential Super Bowl match up.
On a different topic, it has been nice to have this blog back in my rotation for the last few weeks. I hope it continues and I, as a loyal follower, wouldn't mind hearing your takes on both the NBA and college basketball seasons as well as Tim Tebow (the team, obviously) if you are looking for topics.