Tebow answered my challenge.
I do my best not to overreact to things and even to draw attention to it when the world overreacts to something, but how can you not love Tebow at this point? Sure, if you're a Steelers fan you probably still hate him, but Steelers fans a. aren't human beings and b. can't read...so who cares?!
A quick thought on Tebow:
The best quarterbacks in the league: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. Only one of those players could be even considered an above-average athlete by NFL quarterback standards (Rodgers) and still, those offensive are essentially choreographed dances. When you watch a successful play by any one of those teams, you're watching, for lack of a better term, the tip of the iceberg. Most of that touchdown you just witnessed happened before the play, definitely before the game, and possibly before the season.
THAT IS NOT THE CASE WHEN YOU WATCH TIM TEBOW.
Of course he practices and the Broncos have a game plan, but the thing Tebow has on the "best" quarterbacks in the league is that he is much better at improvising than they are and I don't think that is arguable. I don't mean to say that Tim Tebow is as good a player as Tom Brady, but Tim Tebow is raw and there's something sort of artistic about something so unrefined.
The picks:
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
4:30 pm, Saturday
This is the first of three match ups that feel very similar. The three quarterbacks a top-of-my-head rundown of the best in the league all have very bad defenses and are playing against very good defenses. If you've ever read this blog or spoken to me before, you know which type of team I'm dying to pick in all of these games.
But this one's easy (mainly because I don't care about missing these picks).
Th 49ers are at home and, more importantly, the Saints aren't. The one hesitation I would have about picking the 49ers is the fact that Alex Smith is their quarterback but really, I'm probably going to pick the Ravens against Houston and is Smith really that much worse than Flacco? He's worse, but not in any way that I care about.
The Saints had better come with their best routine or they will lose this game. We all drool over the New Orleans offense and good-guy persona and dismiss the perceived neanderthal style of the Harbaugh family but there are things we are forgetting.
1. Just last season, the Saints lost to one of the worst playoff teams of all time on the road. The final nail in the coffin was hammered in by Marshawn Lynch, a slightly above average running back who made one of the best runs in playoff history; a play which doubled as one of the worst defensive plays in sports history. The way the Saints secondary kept trying to strip the ball when they game would have still been in doubt if they had just tackled him and subsequently gave up a game-clinching touchdown was shameful. That play speaks to the Saints' attitude on defense, which, when the chips are down, indifference.
2. The year the Saints won the Super Bowl, they played inside twice and once in Miami. The NFC Championship game was won on a Favre interception that looked like he was paid to do it and the Super Bowl on a commendable, yet still somewhat lucky surprise onside kick.
3. The 2011/2012 NFL playoffs currently consist of 25% Harbaugh.
4. Alex Smith is a mediocre quarterback. What can make up for that in the playoffs, you ask? A really good coach, a really good defense, and home field advantage.
Check, check, aaaaaaand check.
49ers over Saints, 23-17
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
8:00 pm, Saturday
I'm getting chills just thinking about the Denver Broncos...CHILLS.
The misconception about the game between these two teams was that it was a blowout.
Again, with these dance troupe teams, when you lose by 21, how it happens matters. When the Broncos lost 41-23, it was fairly encouraging as far as I'm concerned. Now, let's say that the Patriots got up 38-0 and backed into a 41-23 victory. That would not have been encouraging. But the Broncos were up 16-7! New England was not stopping the Denver offense (they don't stop ANY offense) until the Broncos started inexplicably fumbling inside their own territory. Then the machine got going and the rout was on. The score doesn't tell us how close the game was, it's how long Denver was in it. As long as you keep it close and make these teams play the game of football, you're in fantastic position to win. Denver was in that game.
A couple facts to throw at you:
1. The Patriots haven't won a playoff game since they lost in the Super Bowl to Eli's Giants to go 18-1.
2. The Patriots haven't beaten a team with a winning record all season.
However, I'm still picking the Patriots. I hate this pick, but that doesn't make it any worse of a pick (probably makes it better). I have heard way too much about Tim Tebow in the national media for me to feel comfortable picking him. All of a sudden he's more of a cult figure than Tom Brady and I don't think I can go against Brady when he has even a whiff of underdog smell on him.
Patriots over Broncos, 31-21
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
1:00 pm, Sunday
Marvin Lewis needs to be let go. His role for his whole career was basically to be Chad Johnson/Ochocinco's dad and he's gone now. This team doesn't need a babysitter, it needs someone who knows when it's appropriate to challenge a play and when it's not. I've always liked Marvin...but frankly, I don't know why. I'll miss him, but not that much.
The Texans were the most complete team in the AFC with a top defense, a good passing game, and a great running game. However, their coach and quarterback were both guys with a history of losing games they were in position to win and I had no confidence in either of them.
The Texans are currently a really good team with some very key injuries but I'm not sure it's made a huge difference in terms of results. Gary Kubiak has always failed as a clutch decision-maker but sometimes when you're forced to scramble (like when you're onto your third-string rookie quarterback, for example), you feel as if you're playing with house money and the nerves go out the window. The Texans are playing with more confidence now than when they had a better team.
On the flip side, T.J. Yates is super limited, and that shit doesn't fly against the Baltimore Ravens, I don't care how old they are.
This will not be a good game. Flacco's recent comments about how he gets no credit for wins is laughable. He's a mediocre quarterback, period. That's why I don't want to pick him to win...but I will.
Ravens over Texans, 17-6
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
4:30 pm, Sunday
This is the Super Bowl of this weekend.
Throughout this whole post, I've been somewhat mocking the Brady/Brees/Rodgers triumvirate as if they really are dancers as suggested by the discount double-check commercial, but let's make one thing clear:
These Packers are fearsome.
The Patriots use their choreography to mask their lack of athleticism and the Saints do it because they're on turf. The Packers do it because WHY THE FUCK NOT?! They run some kind of west coast offense on cocaine (the GOOD stuff) where all the slants are 15 yards down field. They have four wide receivers who I would call, "great after the catch," and a quarterback who is accurate, strong-armed, mobile, smart and has a quick release. In fact, Aaron Rodgers is all of those things at an elite level in the NFL. I'm pretty sure the only team left that can beat them is the New York Giants.
The Giants are mean. You saw it last week. Their games are confusing. They give up a sloppy safety early in the game and then go on to shut out the Falcons' offense the entire day. They stopped two fourth and inches'. That front four might actually be monsters. Sometimes they sleep and let the Seahawks get by, but if you're big enough to catch their attention, they are going to try to eat you. THIS IS NOT AN ANALOGY OR HYPERBOLE.
OK, maybe it's both, but still...
I'm really going to enjoy watching this game and I'm going to be rooting hard for the Giants. I am, however, going to keep my Super Bowl pick (which is in my head) intact while it's still possible. Great finale to the weekend.
Packers over Giants 31-28.
GO GIANTS!!!
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