Here's what I've been doing instead of posting in the last couple months:
Dark Souls, Elder Scrolls, Game of Thrones, Bell Hoppin', Homer, Tim Tebow, new house...I think that's it. Almost all of those things are better than this blog so, if you have access to any of them, go do that now and read this later. (For the record, Tim Tebow is the name of my rec basketball team and is in no way referring to the player himself. Any similarities are purely coincidental).
But since the Bengals have made it to the playoffs, I feel I have a responsibility to pick against them.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
4:15 pm, Saturday
In the last few seasons, the Bengals have been going through a sort of detox. The three years following the offensive boom and subsequent Carson Palmer left knee boom the Bengals had just been trying to regain the ease and machine-like efficiency they had to their offense in '05 and failed in a variety of ways, 2006 being the most memorable. That era ended in with the year that Ryan Fitzpatrick played most of the season and Chad Johnson "played" most of the season. That year seemed like rock bottom...but wasn't.
In 2009 the detox began. Being on Hard Knocks seemed almost like therapy in the form of confession. It also helped show the world what it's like to be a Bengal (not that easy) and what Marvin Lewis has to go through. That year, the team was based on running the ball and defense which was a first in Bengal history. That year was not easy however, Carson handed every ball off with his right hand because his left thumb was hurt and his deep threat broke his arm and then died mid-season. They gained about 43 yards in their playoff game against the Jets.
Instead of building on what they had done, the stupidly signed Terrell Owens, probably the worst person in the league and lost every ounce of good Karma they had going. Their record: 4-12.
In 2011, every memorable offensive player has been replaced by rookies or nobody. Rookies who have shown more character than most players the Bengals have ever had. They haven't made the New Orleans Saints style turnaround yet, but they've learned to play through the bad luck that just seems to come with playing for the Bengals, and that's really all you can do. I truly appreciate what this team has done for me as a fan. They're uncommonly steady.
With that said, they've never really gone "all the way" this season. They've had seven chances to beat a playoff team and they have seven losses, all to playoff teams. There is something to be said for beating "who you're supposed to beat (and I think I've said all of them above)" but these are the playoffs. They've played just about everyone tough, but I can't pick them to win a road playoff game until I've seen them do something like it before. I hate myself for doing it but I'm doing it.
Texans over Bengals, 24-16
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
8:00 pm, Saturday
I don't like what I'm going to do here either.
The Detroit Lions can absolutely beat the Saints. Calvin Johnson cannot be stopped by the Saints unless they use their entire secondary to cover him (which they did earlier in the season when Nate Burleson had 93 yards receiving). The Lions should score every time they get the ball.
But that's the problem. The Lions are the type of team that forgets to score. They threw for 408 yards the last time they played the Saints and only scored 17 points. Penalties, turnovers, and other various errors due to lack of concentration are the Lions' M.O. And conversely, the Saints ALWAYS remember to score. This is a game between the hard-worker and the super-talent and the hard-worker is at home. I'm always the first one to call the Saints a fraud but the Lions play right into their hands. If Detroit forgets that it's stupid and gets hot for a game, they can move on but again, I haven't seen it happen yet.
Saints over Lions 48-31
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants
1:00 pm, Sunday
FRAUD! FRAUD!!!
Here's another NFC South team that I will openly call a fraud. Matt Ryan has marginally improved since his rookie season (and example of my greatest fear about Andy Dalton) and does nothing to convince me that he is someone I need to be afraid of in a big game. The rest of the team seems very capable (Ryan included) but doesn't catch my eye in any significant way.
The strange thing about this game is that the Falcons love to play at home and the Giants love to play on the road (particularly as an underdog). Someone on the Giants needs to say something stupid so public opinion slides to the Falcons or the Giants are in real trouble. I can't emphasize enough that the Giants do not deal well with minimal adversity. The one encouraging sign was that they beat the Cowboys last week in a must win game with their home crowd actually cheering them on (usually they hate that!).
Side note: Look at the Chicago Bears. That's approximately what the Giants would look like if Eli got hurt. Probably not coincidentally, Jay Cutler and Eli Manning are my two favorite quarterbacks in the league because of how much responsibility they have to their teams and how much unwarranted flack they get.
Anyway, we have a very flawed team at home against a flawless but unremarkable team. I think you know who I like.
Giants over Falcons 27-20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
4:30 pm, Sunday
I want to say that this game all depends on Roethlisberger's ankle, but it doesn't.
No matter how Big Ben's ankle feels, the Steelers are going to win and I say this only because I have confidence that Pittsburgh can score at least one point.
As fun as Tim Tebow has been this season, I think it's over.
I submit this challenge to Tebow (since he seems to love those): I don't believe that you can score any points against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Steelers over Broncos, 13-0
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