Game 4 Psychology

The rumblings after Kobe's Game 3 failure, if you want to call it that, refer to this game as, "Not Kobe-Like" or, "This is not the Kobe we expected." I would just like to know why exactly we were supposed to think that what he did in Games 2 and 3...and even Game 1 were not exactly what Kobe is.

Kobe was insanely hot in Game 1...about as hot as the Magic were cold. A relatively low pressure Finals game (if that exists) and he shot out of his mind...and stayed in the game after it was already decided to get 40 points...but with that said, I don't want this post to be a piece of Kobe hatred (there will be too many of those by the time I'm done with this blog). What I'm trying to communicate is not that Kobe chokes, it's actually much more complicated than that.

Kobe, for all the lies that are told about him in the media, actually probably is the hardest working player in the league. Whether it's because he has no friends or any other reason, it's still true. And Kobe does bring the pain, if you will, on nights where many would coast. He builds his myth through hot shooting nights against good and bad teams (mostly bad), and on these nights, he is indescribably hot. Shots that no one makes...or takes...or even thinks about taking. Shots that, in the regular season, you see someone making and you just say, "Fuck it, he can have this one."

This strategy even works in the first few rounds of the playoffs. Some weaker teams honestly cannot stop him because he is a great player, but some teams can't stop a lot of players. We couldn't stop Corey Maggette. Kobe's situation is just to a greater degree. Utah could do nothing. They put Brewer on him who, if he were older and smarter, has the ability to play good defense on Kobe Bryant. The problem with the young athletic players on Kobe is that they get very discouraged with he hits those shots where you're thinking, "If he was on my team and took that shot, I would punch him in the sternum." One key to guarding Kobe is to not be offended by him hitting idiotic shots on you (or by his comments to Doug Collins afterwards). It also didn't help that Kobe could play 10 feet off of Brewer on the other end (All-Defensive Team Shooting Guard: Kobe Bryant).

The next series against Houston brought with it a guy who could guard Kobe (contrary to what shouted at Doug Collins several times), a Center who could match the size of the L.A. front court, and a perimeter scorer who could match Kobe point for point. Unfortunately by the end of the series, the big man and the scorer were in suits on the bench and they had a 6-foot 6 guy starting at Center...and that series went SEVEN GAMES. Kobe had a mediocre series. He averaged around 27 points per game on 45% shooting but with only 3.7 assists. Not bad...but when the you need seven games to beat a team where you have the guys in uniform on the other team tripled in payroll, you're doing something not great. Still, they got through.

The Nuggets, talented as they were, were still not truly to be reckoned with once again. Idiots, all of them. A team that would use the "Fuck it" excuse IN THE PLAYOFFS. Chauncey Billups is a good player and a steady head, but he has always been a guy who loved pull-up threes in transition as a point guard. If you want a steady head on the Nuggets, you go to Chauncey first...and Chris Andersen second? I'm serious.

But this is what I'm getting at: in the playoffs, whether it's early or not until the Finals, you will meet another team playing with a purpose and desperation. I'm not sure the Magic know their purpose yet, but you cannot help but play with desperation in the Finals.

Here is my brother's quote about the Lakers: "If you punch, they will punch back and expect you to fall down. But if you punch back a second time, you can beat them." This is what Boston did last year and what Orlando is going to have to find a way to do this year.

During the season, you watch Kobe's games and look at his numbers and think, "This doesn't add up." He only shoots 34% from three? Judging by the highlights...and even watching the games, it seems like he makes a much better percentage. Well here's the trick: as discussed above, when he's in gunslinger mode he goes on hot streaks, but then drastically (and sometimes catastrophically) cools off (this happened in Game 3). In the regular season, the other team has already given up after the hot streak, and right before the time in which they should be mounting their comeback. But in the Finals, there's nothing else to do but try to come back, and that is why Kobe has failed in the past in the Finals "by himself."

What's the solution? Go on more and longer hot streaks? This seems to be what people expect. I've heard analysts say they expect Kobe to come out and have 40-plus points in Game 4. But the fact that this thought could even go through Kobe's head is the problem with Kobe.

The solution is NOT to shoot. Play like a normal person.

Brandon Roy of the Portland Trailblazers plays roughly the same role on an all around talented (and very tall) team like Kobe's, they're just younger and not quite as good (yet). With his less talented roster, Brandon Roy shoots almost five fewer shots per game than Kobe and shoots a better percentage in his third NBA season than Kobe ever has in any season in his entire career (48%). Is Roy a better shooter than Kobe? Does he get more hot more frequently? Of course not, he just takes better shots in a situation where bad shots by the best player would be more acceptable than in Kobe's situation because of the gap, be it slight or not, in talent. Point being, if Brandon Roy, or any player with any concept of how to strategically play basketball, were given the reigns to this Lakers team with the most skilled big man currently in the game (sorry Tim Duncan, you were injured too much this year), the most talented 6th man in the league by a landslide, etc....there is simply no way they think about taking 20 shots. In the first three games, Kobe took 34, 22 and 25 shots.

Listen, I would have been fine with this Lakers team winning the Finals. If Kobe would play well, pass the ball, genuinely congratulate his teammates, run the offense, I can't argue that justice was not served by Kobe getting a fourth title (and most likely a Finals MVP). The problem is, he hasn't learned anything. He's still inventing weird faces to act like the killer he is not, he's still trying to take over games unnecessarily, he's still pointing at players on his team who scored as if to say, "Hey good job, you did what I told you to do. Good thing you listen to me." That MVP ceremony might kill me to watch.

On the bright side, if Kobe comes on with guns blazing tonight, I might be watching a confused public try to decide who the hell on Orlando to which they're supposed to give the Bill Russell Award.