Right now, we're kind of the in the conference tournament section of the NBA season. The good teams can put in a good performance to cement a 1-seed and some Cinderellas can make a run at the dance.
By the way, I think Jon Barry did something comparing the NBA season to the NCAA Tournament and I am sufficiently ashamed of doing the same thing...if you were wondering.
So, here are some issues that are up in the air as of now that could change the NBA playoff picture.
The Top Three Seeds in the East
As much as Orlando has been counted out of the top two seeds conversation, depending on KG's knee, Rondo's ankle, Leon Powe's whatever he hurt tonight, Marbury's brain etc., the Boston Celtics could certainly be staring at a 3-seed in the Eastern Conference. While the difference between Boston or Orlando getting the 1-seed or 2-seed is huge, I'm not sure the difference between those two flip-flopping the 2 and 3 seeds matters a great deal.
Whether or not game 7 (if there is one) is in Boston or Orlando, I'm confident the Celtics will win that series. It's really not that I think Boston is better than Orlando, in fact, I would rather have the Cavs play Boston in the ECF than Orlando. The Magic are a very good team but, especially without Jameer, they can be punked (for lack of a real word). They might have the most physically imposing big man in the game, but Orlando is not intimidating on the inside, and the reverse is true with Boston. Still, it would be quite a shock to preseason pundits if the ECF ended up being anyone but Cavs vs. Celtics.
The Four and Five Seeds in the East
This scenario is another crowd-pleaser of a scenario because it doesn't really matter in the long run because both teams will get hammered by Cleveland. Both these teams are wildly entertaining, great at home, and much much worse on the road. If the Hawks end up with home court, they probably win. If the Heat end up with home court, I might bet my landlord's house they win.
Wade is tough all the time. He is really tough at home. He's really REALLY tough at home in the playoffs. The importance of great players is inflated in the playoffs. It's really that simple. This is my sleeper (if it is a sleeper) for one of the most fun first round playoff series.
Magic vs. Pistons
The Pistons are not a good team, and not the same team that beat the Magic last season in the playoffs. That said, Orlando seems to have a problem with Detroit. There is a decent chance that could be a first round match up...keep an eye on it.
The Lakers' Road to the Finals
The Western Conference playoff picture is so goofy looking, there are way too many scenarios the even run through, but the only way they really impact anything is if any of these teams can beat the Lakers.
Best Case Scenario for the Lakers:
First Round: Dallas Mavericks
The Lakers, and Kobe, own the Mavs. My brother says is L.A. plays Dallas, "Jordan's playoff scoring record will be in jeopardy." That's all that needs to be said. Sweep.
Second Round: Denver Nuggets
Another team that can't guard Kobe. If we're not clear on this, the thing about Kobe is that he runs up the score against weak defensive teams in games with high but not EXTREME pressure. This fits the bill.
Western Conference Finals: Utah Jazz
I hate the Jazz. Luckily for me, I don't think they are making it this far because they can't win on the road and they're playing a lot on the road to end the regular season. The Jazz have a WCF ceiling and it's annoying to even have them there because you know they aren't going to win. Maybe six games but it really doesn't matter.
Nightmare Scenario for L.A.:
First Round: Portland Trailblazers
Do I think the Blazers can beat L.A.? Not really. But it sure would be the most fun. Apparently, the Blazer just boo Kobe every time he touches the ball. HOW AWESOME IS THAT?? The Knicks fans can act like they are the most educated basketball fans around, but at least Portland fans know who to boo and who to chant "MVP."
For the record, standing ovation for the guy that just destroyed you? Fine. If it was a great performance, it was a great performance. But chanting "MVP?" Unforgivable.
The other reason this is a good (bad) match up is that Portland can match the Lakers' length and depth. They might be younger, but they are all good and all BIG. Also, Brandon Roy is not afraid of Kobe (if you're the Lakers' GM, you would trade Kobe for Roy straight, wouldn't you? I would.)
Second Round: Houston Rockets
This looked a lot better before Artest barked up the wrong tree against last week (when I say "barked," the pun is intended. Ron Artest is like a dog). I still think that Houston is one of the toughest and least fun teams to play in the league. Again, I don't really think they can win without McGrady at full strength (or at all), but they can annoy Kobe which is fun for everybody.
Western Conference Finals: San Antonio Spurs
If Ginobili is healthy they can win. If he's not, they can't. Overall, I'd give the Spurs about a 20% chance.
I really think this is going to be more fun than last years'. GET EXCITED.
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